Poll: Pennsylvania voters concerned about economy, dissatisfied with President Trump – Armchair Lehigh Valley
Pennsylvania voters “are deeply concerned about their personal finances and are increasingly dissatisfied with President Trump’s performance,” according to a Franklin & Marshall College Poll released Thursday.
Of those surveyed, 71% believe President Trump is doing a fair or poor job, compared to 29% who said he is doing an excellent or good job. The poll noted a “sizable decline” of 10 points since its March survey, when Trump’s positive approval rating was 39%.
Trump’s approval ratings for immigration, foreign affairs and inflation all dropped since the college’s October poll. Trump’s approval of how he is handling of inflation fell from 31% positive in October to 17% positive in the poll released Thursday.
Nearly half of the voters (47%) say their financial condition is worse than a year ago. That’s an increase from the college’s last poll in March, when 36% of voters said they were worse off financially compared to the year before.
More than a third of Pennsylvania voters (35%) said the economy – which includes unemployment, housing and real estate costs, and higher gas and utility prices – is the state’s most important problem. Among those voters who said the economy is the No. 1 problem, 42% said Democrats can handle the economy better while 24% said Republicans can.
Excellent: Republicans, 23%; Democrats, 2%; independents/others, 8%
Good: Republicans, 40%; Democrats, 3%; independents/others, 7%
Fair: Republicans, 19%; Democrats, 5%; independents/others, 17%
Poor: Republicans, 17%; Democrats, 90%; independents/others, 68%
Source: Franklin & Marshall College poll
The poll also asked voters how they would vote on a generic ballot – Republican or Democrat – in the U.S. House race.
“Democrats have a pretty big lead – 12 points,” Berwood Yost, director of the college’s Center for Opinion Research, said during an online forum to discuss the poll Thursday night.
“The other thing about the midterm congressional races is that Democrats seem much more interested in the election … than Republicans [by] about a 13-point advantage [64% to 51%],” he said.
The two first-term Republican congressmen – Ryan Mackenzie vs. Democrat Bob Brooks in the Lehigh Valley’s 7th District and Rob Bresnahan vs. Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti in the 8th – are vulnerable, Yost said.
“You’ve got two freshman Republicans. Freshmen always have a tough time, right? I would say, given the nature of those districts, they’re very narrow Republican advantages in terms of performance,” he said.
”I think those two guys are in real trouble just because of the context” of low approval ratings for Trump and attitudes about the economy.
Democrats are targeting Republican incumbents in the 7th and 8th districts as well as the 1st (incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick vs. Democratic Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie) and the 10th (incumbent Scott Perry vs. Democrat Janelle Stelson) in their attempt to take control of the U.S. House in 2027. Yost noted that voter attitudes could change by the Nov. 3 election.
Pennsylvania issues
Respondents to the poll also weighed in on Pennsylvania issues.
Nearly half (47%) believe the state is “on the wrong track” while 36% believe it is “headed in the right direction.” The last time a majority of registered voters believed the state was headed in the right direction was January 2020.
Gov. Josh Shapiro’s job approval ratings “are holding up pretty well considering how much pessimism voters express,” the poll said.
Voters are evenly divided on Shapiro, with 48% saying he is doing an excellent or good job and 48% saying he is doing a fair or poor job. However, in looking at the November election for governor, the poll found that Shapiro, a Democrat, leads Republican Stacy Garrity, the state’s treasurer, 50% to 28%.
Voters who positively view Shapiro’s job performance cross partisan lines, with three out of four Democrats, nearly half of independents, and about a quarter of Republicans saying he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job.
The poll’s results on state issues show:
89% support limiting students’ access to cell phones in schools.
72% favor a state law that would make it illegal to discriminate in employment or housing based on a person’s sexual orientation or gender identity. “Voters have consistently favored such a law since the question was first asked in 2014,” the poll said.
71% favor regulating and taxing skill games, which are similar to computer video games. That is an increase from Franklin & Marshall’s 2024 poll when 60% were in favor of regulating and taxing them. (On Monday, the state Supreme Court ruled that skill games, which are found in social clubs, bars and convenience stores, are a form of gambling and should be regulated by the state. The decision clears the way for the state to tax the estimated 70,000 machines in Pennsylvania.)
70% support having an independent redistricting commission draw legislative districts, and 59% oppose the mid-decade redistricting occurring in some states.
The poll of 546 registered voters was conducted June 8–14 by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College. Of the 546 respondents, there were 233 Democrats, 226 Republicans and 87 independents. All respondents were contacted by mail. Interviews were then conducted by phone or online. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points.
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