Fate of abortion in Florida will depend on voter turnout
Florida elections 2024: 6 amendments on the ballot for Nov. 5
Six constitutional amendments, including recreational marijuana and abortion access, will be on Florida ballots for the Nov. 5, 2024 general election.
A new opinion poll suggests Florida voters are primed to pass two of the most contentious questions on the November ballot, approving recreational marijuana and a right to abortion.
The survey from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL), released early Monday, shows 66% approval for Amendment 3 on adult-use pot and the bare minimum 60% for Amendment 4 on abortion access.
Proposed amendments need no less than 60% approval statewide to be added to the Florida Constitution; the poll’s margin of error was plus or minus roughly 3½ points.
“After years of polling on marijuana in Florida, both medical and recreational, it is clear that the majority is in favor of legalization,” PORL faculty director and political science professor Michael Binder said in a statement. “Closing in on Election Day, despite some heavy campaigning, we’re seeing support for this amendment and is on track to exceed the 60% supermajority required to pass.”
In fact, Binder added, support “has increased by two points since the last PORL statewide poll in July of this year, in which 64% of likely voters indicated a vote of ‘yes.’ ”
On the other hand, support for the abortion amendment “just reached the threshold for a supermajority,” Binder said, with another 32% opposed and 8% undecided.
Amendment 4 would overturn current Florida law prohibiting most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, bringing the state back to where it had been for the 49 years that Roe v. Wade was the nation’s law, allowing most abortions until “fetal viability,” or about 24 weeks.
“Since campaigning has picked up against the amendment, support for abortion protection has dropped from 69% of likely voters back in July,” Binder said. “Now, just barely reaching the 60% it needs to pass, it looks like the fate of abortion in Florida will come down to turnout on Election Day.”
The latest poll results come as Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration has put on a full-court press against both measures. For example, he’s used taxpayer funds to pay for public service announcements issued by state agencies attacking both amendments. That’s drawn several legal actions to block them, most of which have so far failed.
Moreover, his Department of State released a report last week alleging widespread fraud in the petition process that enabled the abortion measure to get on the ballot. The petition gathering group denies any wrongdoing. The report led an anti-abortion rights group to file a lawsuit attempting to get the results of vote on Amendment 4 thrown out, even if it passes.
Previous coverage: Federal judge: DeSantis can’t threaten Florida TV stations airing pro-abortion rights ad
In other poll numbers:
Donald Trump up by 10 in Florida over Kamala Harris
∎ Former President Donald Trump is now ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 percentage points in Florida in the race for the White House, the poll shows.
Of those polled, 53% of respondents said they’d vote for Trump, 43% for Harris, 2% said they would vote for another candidate and 2% were undecided.
No clear winner in US Senate race
∎ No one received a majority in the race for U.S. Senate. Republican incumbent Rick Scott received 49% support in the poll, Democratic challenger and former member of Congress Debbie Mucarsel-Powell got 46%. Also, 1% said they would vote for someone else and 4% were undecided.
In both races for president and Senate, “undecided respondents were then asked in a follow-up question who they lean toward if they had to choose between the candidates. In addition, responses were recorded from those who refused to take the survey, but volunteered who they would vote for before hanging up the phone. These ‘leaners’ and ‘blurters’ are included,” the news release for the poll explained.
More on Senate race: Two Florida hurricanes haven’t put brakes on Scott, Mucarsel-Powell US Senate race
Here’s why: “Hurricane Milton making landfall smack dab in the middle of our field period for this poll proved a big challenge, so we made some methodological choices to increase our coverage and ensure a representative sample,” Binder said.
“Prior research tells us that the folks who blurt out their candidate vote choice and then hang up are very likely to vote, and most of those ‘blurters’ are Trump supporters. This might help explain why his lead widened to 10 points, up from 7 in our last poll back in July.”
School board amendment appears doomed
∎ Amendment 1, which would allow partisan elections for county school boards, seems poised to fail, the poll suggests.
Of those polled, 41% were in favor, 30% opposed and another 30% said they did not know. “The large number of folks who said they don’t know may be partially due to the confusing legal language, especially when read over the phone, more than people being truly undecided on the issue,” Binder said.
If enacted, candidates’ political parties would be listed with their names on ballots, the way they were before voters decided to make them nonpartisan in 1998.
Read more: Quick guide to all 6 amendments on Florida ballot. Here’s what your yes or no vote will do
How the poll was performed
According to the news release, the poll consisted of a random sample of 977 likely Florida voters across Florida’s 10 major media markets, was conducted Oct. 7-18, and was sourced from the September 2024 Florida voter file, using a mix of landline and cell phone numbers.
“A voter was included in the sampling frame if they had voted in any of the 2016, 2018, 2020, or 2022 general elections, or the 2020, 2022, or 2024 primary elections. … Respondents who said they would ‘probably’ or ‘definitely’ not vote in the upcoming election, or refused to answer, were screened out.”
This story contains previously reported information. Jim Rosica, news director of the Tallahassee Democrat, can be reached at jrosica@tallahassee.com. Follow him on X: @JimRosicaFL.
