Did Republicans Just Kill the Filibuster?

Republicans are relying on rarely employed accounting methods to push Donald Trump‘s “one, big beautiful bill” through the Senate, and in doing so could upend established Congressional procedures surrounding the reconciliation process and the filibuster.

Why It Matters

The filibuster—a procedural move allowing senators to extend debates on bills indefinitely without a 60-vote majority—has long been viewed as a move to encourage bipartisanship in Congress and as a bulwark against political dominance by slim majorities in the upper chamber.

Experts told Newsweek that recent moves by Republicans while trying to pass Trump’s tax legislation could create new precedent surrounding the filibuster for years to come, including past the period of GOP control.

What To Know

Republicans are employing the reconciliation process to pass Trump’s tax bill, the centerpiece of his second-term domestic agenda, allowing them to eventually advance the bill with only a majority vote rather than the 60 votes normally needed to do away with the threat of a filibuster. A central element of the bill, which the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates would add $4.2 trillion to the nation’s deficit through 2034, is the extension of the tax cuts enacted during Trump’s first term.

Sweeping fiscal moves of this kind are traditionally restricted by the Byrd Rule, adopted in 1985, which limits the sort of policies that can be folded into bills passed through reconciliation, and forbids legislation from adding to the nation’s deficit beyond 10 years.

However, as reported by AP, Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip Swagel recently notified Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley of the Senate Budget Committee that elements of the Big, Beautiful Bill would increase the deficit “in years after 2034.” Going by this assessment, the Republican bill would violate the rule that determines what legislation can clear the Senate with a simple majority, which could force Republicans to amend significant portions of the legislation.

In response to these concerns, and Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough advising that certain provisions in the bill were not budget-related and therefore in violation of Senate rules, Republicans have now argued that Trump’s 2017 tax cuts should be treated as part of the fiscal “baseline” forecast, even though these have not yet been extended. Republicans have also cited Section 312 of Congressional Budget Act to argue that the final authority for determining baseline spending figures, and whether the tax portion of the bill violates Byrd, lies with Republican Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham.

When approached by Newsweek for comment, a spokesperson for Senator Graham said: “Republicans do not want a $4 trillion tax hike—which is what would happen if the Democrats had their way and the 2017 tax cuts expired.” They also referenced past support from Democrats for the notion that the Senate Budget Committee Chairman has the power to establish the baseline, citing former Chairman Bernie Sanders‘ 2022 remark that “the Budget Committee, through its Chair, makes the call on questions of numbers.” Sanders is an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.

Experts have said that this new “Byrd Bath”—as it has been referred to by some on Capitol Hill—could establish a new precedent regarding budget reconciliation and the avoidance of filibusters by those in power in the future.

“The budget process established in 1974 and reinforced by rules and precedents since then was intended to allow a simple majority to pass a budget as long as the contents of a budget measure were limited to budget-related spending and tax provisions,” Steve Smith, professor of politics at Arizona State University, told Newsweek.

“Playing partisan games with the budget process to set aside the 10-year budget period or use it for nonbudget purposes is contrary to the plain language of the Budget Act and the Byrd rules adopted by the Senate,” he added. “It is a precedent that will get repeated over and over again.”

Michael Ettlinger, a political adviser who previously worked with the Biden-Harris campaign, said, “If the Republican’s new accounting method becomes the norm, it will be far easier to pass deficit increasing legislation in the Senate with a simple majority vote—limiting the impact of the filibuster.”

Ettlinger, who is currently a senior fellow at the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), noted that nothing would then stop Democrats from employing the same precedents to bypass the filibuster in future bills.

“If the Democrats reclaim the Senate they will have the opportunity to undermine the filibuster as the Republicans have done,” he told Newsweek. “It’s their choice.”

Democratic Senator Rubén Gallego, reiterated this argument, posting to X: “There is no filibuster if the Senate [Republicans] do this and when Dems take power there is no reason why we should not use reconciliation to pass immigration reform.”

What People Are Saying

Democratic Senator Ron Wyden, ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, in a statement released Sunday, said: “The only way for Republicans to pass this horribly destructive bill, which is based on budget math as fake as Donald Trump’s tan, was to go nuclear and hide it behind a bunch of procedural jargon. We’re now operating in a world where the filibuster applies to Democrats but not to Republicans, and that’s simply unsustainable given the triage that’ll be required whenever the Trump era finally ends.”

Steve Smith, professor of politics at Arizona State University, told Newsweek: “If a small Senate majority can put anything in a budget measure or ignore the ten-year budget window, then nothing is left for regular legislation that is subject to a filibuster. It represents a “get-it-while-you-can” partisanship that Republicans have adopted since [Mitch] McConnell became leader that, step-by-step, has undermined longstanding Senate norms.”

Republican Senator and Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham, speaking on the Senate floor on Monday, said: “I’m not the first chairman to change a baseline for different reasons.”

“The budget Chairman, under [Section] 312, sets the baseline,” Graham continued. “This has been acknowledged by Republicans and Democrats.”

What Happens Next?

Debate over President Trump’s megabill has now reached the final stages. A “vote-a-rama” on the bill—a marathon session during which lawmakers may introduce amendments to a reconciliation package—kicked off in the Senate on Monday morning. Should the bill pass a Senate vote, expected this week, it will then be sent back down to the House for approval.

On Friday, Trump said that his preferred deadline of July 4 was not the “end all,” but later said via Truth Social that the House of Representatives “must be ready” to send the bill to his desk by this date.