Central California going blue? Data shows Democrats outpace Republicans


Is it too early to be thinking about the 2024 election? 

Not for some of us.

A first look at state voter registration numbers for the next election, the primary in March, are out. Every four years, the state does an early read 154 days out for every county that you can compare to four years earlier and perhaps spot a trend.

The California Secretary of State will publish three more updates before the March election and again ahead of the November General Election.

Here is what we see in Central California counties, thanks to the 154-day report as of Oct 3. We took a look at the Republican registrations versus Democrats.

What’s the trend? Things are turning blue.

Tulare County: Red but trending blue

Democratic registration in 2020 was 61,132 Democrats or 33.01% vs 71,234 Republicans or 38.47%. Four years later, Democrats numbered 70,707 or 33.32%, and Republicans numbered 78,936 or 37.20%. The figures show a slight gain for Democrats percent-wise, with 9575 more new Dem voters vs. an increase of 7702 GOP voters. The GOP still maintains its long-held majority of more than 8,000 votes, with Dems creeping up.

Fresno County: Strong blue trend

Democratic registration in Fresno County in 2020 was 187,497 voters or 39.45% vs 155,396 GOP voters or 32.69%. Fast forward to the latest registration for the 2024 election done in October 2023, and we see 198,836 Democrats or 39.19% vs 162,151 Republicans or 31.96%. The trend favors Democrats, who added 11,359 new voters vs 6755 new GOP voters over four years. Both parties lost slightly on overall percentage. Republicans in Fresno County lost their majority after 2008, when they still had a significant lead in registration.

Kings County: Red

In Kings County, Democrats numbered 18,755 or 33.55% in 2020 vs 22,323 GOP voters or 39.93%. In the latest count toward the 2024 election, Democrats number 20,822 or 33.29% vs 24,355 GOP voters or 38.94%.

That amounts to an increase of 2077 new Democrat voters vs 2032 new GOP in Kings. Call it a draw on new registration that still favors the GOP.

Kern County: Red but trending Blue

In Kern County, Dems in 2020 numbered 140,380 or 34.55% vs 148,032 GOP or 36.43%. In the latest count for the 2024 election, Democrats number 152,668 or 34.67% vs 159,655 or 36.26 % for the GOP. The trends show a slight percent decline for the GOP and a small gain for Democrats. As to the numbers, the Democrats have gained 12,288 new voters in Kern County, while the GOP earned 11,623.

San Luis Obispo: Stronger blue than ever

In San Luis Obispo County, Dems in 2020 had 66,247 voters or 37.32%. Republicans, the majority here for years, had 61,833 or 34.86%. In the latest count, the Dems numbered 68,909 or 38.67%, and Republicans numbered 61,182 or 34.34%. The upshot is that the GOP has lost 701 voters in the county while the Democrats gained 2662 new voters in the past four years and 1.4%. Bottom line: SLO turns bluer.

San Joaquin County: Solid blue

Democrats have been leading in San Joaquin County for a while, and the trend continues. In 2020, Democrats had 146,901 voters or 43.64%, while the GOP had 97,453 or 28.95%. Four years later,  Democrats have grown to 159,399 or 43.74% vs 105,101 GOP voters or 28.84%. So Democrats added 12,498 more voters vs 7748 more GOP voters. Bottom line: solid Blue.

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