Trump’s approval ticks up but remains low

President Trump’s job approval rating has ticked up slightly in the past three weeks or so, going from 38% to 41% in Decision Desk HQ’s average. Still, his numbers remain mired in a rough spot for an incumbent president staring down a midterm election, as indicated by his 57% disapproval rating.

This is true across the many different polling aggregators out there. Besides averaging about 41% in Decision Desk HQ’s tracker, Trump stands at about 39% in both The New York Times’s and Silver Bulletin’s averages. Elsewhere, he’s about in the same place in RealClearPolitics’s average (41%) and a tad lower in FiftyPlusOne’s (37%).

An approval rating between 37% and 41% historically bodes poorly for the president’s party in the U.S. House. At that mark, the president’s party might expect to lose roughly 25 to 50 seats, based on post-World War II approval and House election data.

Still, two things give the GOP some hope of avoiding losses at that level. First, redistricting has made the 2026 map a bit more favorable for Republicans, potentially limiting the number of seats Democrats can realistically target. And second, Trump still has time for his approval to improve at least a bit. In 2018, for instance, Trump’s approval was around 40% on Labor Day, but ticked up to 42% by Election Day.

Curious how a candidate’s lead changed as the votes were counted? On Votes, you can look at a race’s Vote Drop History. Take Georgia’s June 16 GOP runoff for governor between healthcare executive Rick Jackson and Lt. Gov Burt Jones.

Initially, Jackson held a sizable lead in vote percentage because he did better among early in-person votes, which were counted first. But Lt. Gov. Burt Jones narrowed the gap because he did better among votes cast on Election Day, which were counted next. As the highlighted vote drop indicates, Jones was doing better in many batches of votes tabulated later on. But Jackson did well enough in Election Day votes to hold onto to win in the end.

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In Decision Desk HQ’s generic ballot average, Democrats lead Republicans by about 5 points, 45%-40%. Democrats have usually led on this indicator by around 5 to 7 points since April, so this is on the lower end of their long-running advantage.

Americans continue to hold strongly negative views about the direction of the country. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, 60% say the nation is on the wrong track, while only 32% say it’s on the right track.

Next Tuesday, the Democratic primary for New York’s open 12th Congressional District features a highly competitive contest to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jerrold Nadler. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, state Assembly members Alex Bores (19%) and Micah Lasher (18%) are nominally in first and second, while political commentator and Kennedy family member Jack Schlossberg is just behind them (17%). Former Republican and attorney George Conway, the ex-husband of longtime Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway, is in fourth with 11%. However, we haven’t seen a new poll of this race in a month, so preferences may have shifted.

Michigan has a critical U.S. Senate race this year, and the contest’s three-way Democratic primary is highly competitive. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed leads with 34%, putting him just ahead of Rep. Haley Stevens’s 28%. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow is in third with 17%. El-Sayed is viewed as the most progressive contender in the August primary, while Stevens is most preferred by the party establishment. McMorrow falls somewhere in between.

Republican Rep. Byron Donalds has President Trump’s endorsement and is favored to win the GOP nomination for governor in Florida. However, he still has to win the Aug. 18 Republican primary. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Donalds leads the Republican field with about 45%, far ahead of the 12% garnered by James Fishback, a controversial conservative activist and businessman. Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former state House Speaker Paul Renner are both polling below 10%.

The likeliest general election matchup in Florida’s gubernatorial contest is Donalds against former Rep. David Jolly, a former Republican. Jolly is the Democratic frontrunner, although state Rep. Dotie Joseph jumped into the primary right at the candidate filing deadline. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average of the probable Donalds-Jolly matchup, Donalds leads by 2 points, 44%-42%.

Though Florida has recently had a clear GOP lean, the state may also have a competitive special election for U.S. Senate. Appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody is seeking to complete now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s term. She appears likely to face Democrat Alex Vindman, a former Army lieutenant colonel who was part of the National Security Council. Vindman came to national prominence in 2019 when he testified in Trump’s first impeachment trial. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Moody holds a 46%-42% advantage.

Controversies abound for Democrat Graham Platner, his party’s presumptive nominee to take on GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine’s U.S. Senate race. The question is, how much have they weakened him? In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Platner leads Collins only about 47%-46%, down from a 48%-42% edge a month ago. This is a must-win election for Democrats if they want a real shot at a Senate majority.

As a part of the Senate picture, Democrats also must win the contest in North Carolina. But early general election polling is more favorable for Democrats there. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee, holds about a 9-point lead over former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley, 50%-41.

In Ohio’s special election for Senate, appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces former Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic nominee. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Brown now leads Husted 50%-47%. Strikingly, a Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research poll found Brown ahead of Husted by 8 points, 53%-45%. It’s one poll, but Democrats will hope it bodes well for them in a seat they also likely need if they want to retake the Senate.

In Ohio’s race for governor, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a 2024 presidential candidate, faces Democrat Amy Acton, the state’s former health director during the COVID-19 pandemic. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, the two nominees are just about tied at 49%. Acton’s position improved after the Fox News survey found her slightly ahead of Ramaswamy.

To see all Decision Desk HQ Polling Averages, click here.

Our team carefully reviews and averages these polls using a straightforward methodology, ensuring that our polling averages reflect a balanced and up-to-date snapshot of public opinion. Within each average you can find a specific point in time to compare how things have changed or view any poll included within that average.

Read about Decision Desk HQ’s polling average methodology here.