- Invest 95L is just a few days away from becoming a tropical depression, and potentially the Atlantic’s 10th named storm, Jerry.
- Spaghetti models show the system’s path likely tracking north, following Hurricanes Erin and Humberto.
- Florida has a low chance of seeing tropical rain or wind impacts over the next two weeks.
Editor’s note: This story was updated with the National Hurricane Center’s latest tropical weather outlook.
The Atlantic’s 10th named storm, Jerry, could just be a few days away.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking Invest 95L, a broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic, which has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next few days.
“A cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Atlantic is gradually becoming better organized and has been designated as Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski. “It is becoming likely that this will organize into a tropical storm this week.”
Invest 95L spaghetti models show the system’s path following Hurricanes Erin and Humberto. A track westward into the Caribbean Sea isn’t entirely out of the question, but forecasters say it is the “least likely” scenario.
“While many options remain possible with its future track, the most likely track appears to turn the future storm to the north as it passes by the Caribbean islands,” says Pydynowski. “This would keep it east of the U.S. mainland.”
The same system that dumped more than an inch of rain on the Pensacola area on Sunday, and continues to cause rainfall on Monday, continues to have a low risk for tropical development off the Southeastern coast from an area encompassing the Bahamas to the Carolinas, according to AccuWeather.
“While the risk of tropical rainstorm or storm formation is low with this system, localized flooding, rough surf and tidal flooding, made only worse from this week’s expected king tides, will be possible over the next few days along the Southeast coast,” AccuWeather wrote in its forecast.
Invest 95L stormtracker
The National Hurricane Center upped the chances that a broad area of low pressure over the tropical central Atlantic as Invest 95L, would become a tropical depression over the next couple of days.
Invest 95L has a 70% chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and an 80% over the next seven days.
The system is becoming better organized, according to the NHC, who says environmental conditions will be right for slow development. It is moving quickly west-northwestward.
“Steering winds may cause the storm to pass close to the northeastern Caribbean islands late this week or this upcoming weekend,” said Pydynowski. “This would bring a glancing blow of rain and wind.”
Invest 95L spaghetti models show the system likely following the same path as Hurricanes Erin and Humberto, which would lead the storm northward and away from the U.S.
Is Invest 95L coming to Florida?
As of right now, there is little indication that Invest 95L is headed toward Florida.
Spaghetti models for Invest 95L
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Will Invest 95L become Tropical Storm Jerry?
“Tropical storm number 10 of the Atlantic season appears to be mere days or hours away from forming, say AccuWeather hurricane experts, and it has a good chance of impacting land later this week,” according to AccuWeather.
“It is becoming likely that this will organize into a tropical storm this week,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
New tropical system crops up in the Caribbean, Gulf
A new tropical system appeared in the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. update on Monday, Oct. 6, in the northwestern Caribbean and southwestern Gulf.
The trough of low pressure is expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night into early Tuesday, then track over the then track over the Bay ofCampeche late Tuesday through Wednesday, according to the NHC.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the Bay of Campeche around the middle of the week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico during the next few days.
The budding system has just a 10% chance of forming over the next seven days.
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
