Are Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos set to square off over a lithium volcano?
The McDermitt Caldera is an extinct supervolcano on the Oregon-Nevada border that, depending on who you believe, is loaded with enough lithium to power 600 million electric cars. It begs the question: who will control the $1.5 trillion dollar mineral deposit?
Located at the southern end of the McDermitt Caldera, in Humboldt County, Nevada, the lithium (Li) deposit at Thacker Pass is believed to have estimated reserves of approximately 1.3 million tons of Li carbonate equivalent. That’s enough of the treasured material, on its own, to redraw world’s energy map.
Global lithium deposits
Recent calculations by Castor and Henry estimate an in situ tonnage of ~20 to 40 MT of Li (maximum 120 MT of Li) to be contained within sediments of the whole McDermitt caldera … even if this estimation is high due to variations in sediment thickness and/or Li grade, the Li inventory contained in McDermitt caldera sediments would still be on par with, if not considerably larger than, the 10.2 MT of Li inventory estimated to be contained in brines beneath the Salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, previously considered the largest Li deposit on Earth.
Spanish-language site Motorpasión reports that the McDermitt Caldera deposit packs enough lithium to produce a staggering 600 million electric cars, and could make the US (with the right policies in place) a global leader in the li-ion battery supply chain. So, of course, America’s biggest EV oligarchs are going to fight over it.
High stakes
Pickup trucks are big business in the US and, frankly, everywhere else — and both Musk and Bezos are hoping to get into that business in a big way, through the Tesla CEO’s Cybertruck, its (supposedly) less polarizing successor, and the upcoming low-cost Slate backed by the Amazon founder. And that doesn’t include GM (who have been arguing over the rights to the caldera for years already), Ford, Rivian (where Bezos, through Amazon, holds more than 13% of the shareholders’ vote), and others.
For both of them, controlling the caldera means more than money. It means securing control of one of the most strategic mineral sectors of this century. And, in late 2024 with the Trump-Musk bromance in full bloom, Musk publicly pushed mining operations to produce more nickel for EVs, invested in a massive lithium refinery in Texas, and promised even more EV production, making it look like Musk, through his political influence, might soon be granted control of the world’s largest lithium deposit.
“Elon’s always been there, now the megaphone is bigger,” one lithium producer, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, told Politico. “This is a pretty small space, so he’s always had a lot of truck.”
Then in June, the Trump-Musk bromance collapsed in dramatic fashion, with Musk launching a now-deleted tweet on X accusing the President of being “in the Epstein files,” launching a political controversy that is still gnawing at Trump.
The really big bomb
With Musk’s political influence largely spent as he starts his own America Party to “primary” sitting republicans who voted against his interests, that opens the door for others to start looking into American mineral rights — and Bezos, through his AI‑driven exploration startup KoBold Metals (which recently spent $1 billion to expand its footprint into the Democratic Republic of the Congo after inking a framework deal to buy AVZ Mineral’s stake in the Manono hard rock lithium deposit there), is perfectly placed to capitalize on that opportunity.
And, if there’s one thing guys like Jeff Bezos do well, it’s capitalize on an opportunity … and I wouldn’t expect him to happily send all that lithium he’s mining to Elon’s refinery, either.
What do you guys think? Are we headed for an epic showdown on the Oregon-Nevada border? If we are, who do you think would win? Let us know, in the comments.
Original content from Electrek.
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