CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WVIR) – UVA Center for Politics, led by political analyst Larry Sabato, looked into its Crystal Ball Thursday morning and saw something different for the outcome of November’s gubernatorial election.
Despite polls showing the race narrowing, they believe, there is a clear lead in the race to the governor’s mansion, that is held by Democrat Abigail Spanberger.
“We thought we’d sort of seen enough over the course the last several months to be a little more confident, Abigail Spanberger’s chances,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. “We decided to move it to likely Democratic.”
For months, UVA Center for Politics was hesitant to declare a clear favorite between Spanberger and Republican opponent Winsome Earle Sears. With two weeks to until early voting starts on September 19, it said now is the time they can get a better picture of who Virginians are favoring.
Kondik pointed to funding advantages and polling trends, not individual polls, to support their prediction of a Spanberger win.
“There’s been some reporting about Republicans kind of grumbling about how Earle- Sears is running her campaign,” Kondik said. “I also do think, though, that she is just in a pretty tough spot.”
Possibly the biggest indicator to Center for Politics, is what Kondik calls environmental factors. Virginians have historically elected a governor of the opposite party as the sitting president.
“Republicans obviously can still win because they did back in 2021, but it does take some things, I think breaking in their favor that again, I just don’t think are really present this year,” Kondik said.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has underestimated Republican voters at least once before, when it predicted a Harris victory over Trump.
“Democrats should win the Virginia governor’s race based on what we know about history and the turn out dynamics and that sort of thing,” Kondik said.
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