Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season on Friday and was expected to continue strengthening into a major hurricane, forecasters said.
In its latest advisory on Friday, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Erin was about 460 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands and had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph as it moved west-northwest at 18 mph.
Are there any watches or warnings in effect?
Since Thursday night, a tropical storm watch has been in effect for:
- Anguilla and Barbuda
- St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
- Saba and St. Eustatius
- Sint Maarten
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
The NHC has said interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin.
How will Erin affect land?
Erin is expected to produce areas of heavy rain beginning late Friday and into the weekend across the northernmost Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, as well as southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, as well as isolated totals of 6 inches.
Wind and swells are also possible. According to the NHC, the swells could affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this weekend and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
When could Erin strengthen?
The NHC said in its advisory that Erin could become a major hurricane (Category 3) by the weekend.
It is forecast “to become a large and formidable major hurricane this weekend,” the NHC said.
Will Erin hit Florida?
According to the NHC’s forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.
Forecasters believe Erin will continue gradually turning northwestward and northward, well to the east of Florida.
National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center Hurricane Erin at 11 a.m. on Aug. 15, 2025.
But a major hurricane even remotely close to the U.S. could of course come with a high risk of rip currents and rougher seas. NBC6 will watch for these impacts.
When do forecast models become more certain?
Models tend to become less accurate as we go further out in time, which is why forecasts like the cone from the National Hurricane Center only go out five days.
In the next one to two days, the storm’s forward speed and location will be scrutinized as little adjustments now can and will have an impact later. The more data is gathered in the initial stages of a storm, the better the predictions can be.
