The tropics remain active this first weekend of October, though not every system poses a direct threat.
While the low near the Bahamas is unlikely to become tropical in nature, it will still contribute to our unsettled, soggy, and breezy weekend across South Florida.
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A weak area of low pressure is sitting near the central and northwestern Bahamas, slowly drifting west-northwest toward South Florida.
Strong upper-level winds should keep this disturbance from organizing into anything stronger, but development isn’t the main concern here.
The bigger impact will be the heavy rainfall and localized flooding it could bring to parts of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this low just a 10% chance of development in the next week.
TRACKING THE TROPICS: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide
Farther east, a tropical wave near Africa is sparking a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to merge with another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic before heading west.
Conditions could gradually become more favorable for development, and the NHC gives this wave a 50% chance of forming into a tropical depression by late next week near or east of the Lesser Antilles.
