Republicans now hold a narrow edge in voter registration in Stanislaus County, marking the first time in more than 10 years that the GOP has outnumbered Democrats.
New figures released by the county registrar this month show 108,861 registered Republicans compared to 108,289 Democrats, a lead of 572 voters. The shift comes after February’s statewide report from the secretary of state showed Democrats ahead in the county by nearly 1,400.
“This is where we’re going. It’s not just observations or subjective. It’s real, concrete evidence that we’re shifting in this direction,” said Joel Campos, chair of the Stanislaus County Republican Party. He called the change a “major milestone” for local conservatives.
Democrats argue the new lead may not last. Political strategist Steven Maviglio said registration often fluctuates outside of an election year.
“Registrations come and go, particularly during the off-season,” Maviglio said. “Stanislaus is certainly an outlier. Across the state, Democratic registrations are on the rise, and Republicans have dropped.”
Stanislaus County has long been considered a battleground in California’s Central Valley. Democrats carried the county in the 2016 and 2020 presidential races, but both margins were razor-thin. By 2024, Republicans flipped the county decisively, with President Trump winning by nearly 11% points.
Local GOP leaders say they plan to build on their advantage ahead of the 2026 election cycle. Democrats, meanwhile, insist the slim margin could swing back in their favor as turnout campaigns intensify.
