- Invest 98L strengthens into Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean.
- AccuWeather forecasters said it’s possible the system could strengthen into a hurricane in the warm waters of the Caribbean.
- Will Florida feel any impacts? See what could influence where the system will go.
As expected, Invest 98L wasted no time and strengthened into Tropical Storm Melissa Tuesday morning, Oct. 21.
Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and the first since Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed Oct. 13.
Forecasters are predicting Melissa could become the season’s next hurricane by the weekend. A hurricane watch has been issued for portions of Haiti.
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Where the storm goes depends on several factors, including the location of the jet stream, but AccuWeather warned while there a low chance for a direct hit to the U.S. at this time, “it’s still on the table.”
Florida residents should monitor the the tropics closely and, as always, remain prepared.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m., Oct. 21:
Tropical Storm Melissa forms in central Caribbean. Where will it go?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to continue strengthening over the next few days.
Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall — up to 10 inches through Oct. 24 — and the risk of significant flash flooding and the danger of landslides to portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Track Tropical Storm Melissa
Could Tropical Storm Melissa impact Florida?
“While we think that the chances of a direct U.S. hit from this storm are low right now, it’s still on the table should the tropical system make it into the western Caribbean,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
“The future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm is also quite uncertain,” the National Hurricane Center said.
Where could Tropical Storm Melissa go? See possible scenarios
The strength and location of the jet stream will be the biggest influence on the track of the rainstorm moving forward, according to AccuWeather.
“Historically, tropical systems that reach the western Caribbean in October are more likely to be steered away from places like Texas and Louisiana.
“But the eastern United States, and Florida in particular, can still be impacted by intense storms.”
What tropical waves, disturbances are in Atlantic basin now? How likely are they to strengthen?
The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring three other tropical waves, in addition to Tropical Storm Melissa:
- A eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W/34W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 6 to 11 mph. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 30W and 35W.
- A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 49W, from 17N southward, moving westward at 11 mph. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 45W and 55W.
- A tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea has its axis near 82W/83W, south of 18N, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 79W and 83W.
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted by Tropical Storm Melissa, tropical waves out there?
It’s too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from Tropical Storm Melissa or the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.
Florida weather radar for Oct. 21, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.
Andrea(June 20)Barry(June 29)Chantal(July 5)Dexter: (Aug. 3)Erin: (Aug. 11; hurricane Aug. 15; major hurricane Aug. 16)Fernand: (Aug. 23)Gabrielle: (Sept. 17; hurricane Sept. 21; major hurricane Sept. 22)Humberto: (Sept. 24; hurricane Sept. 26; major hurricane Sept. 25)Imelda: (Sept. 28; hurricane Sept. 30)Jerry: Oct. 7Karen: Oct. 9Lorenzo: Oct. 13- Melissa: Oct. 21
- Nestor: NES-tor
- Olga: OAL-guh
- Pablo: PAHB-lo
- Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
- Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
- Tanya: TAHN-yuh
- Van: van
- Wendy: WEN-dee
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
- Hurricane: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
- Typhoon: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
- Cyclone: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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This story has been updated to include new information.
