- Forecasters are monitoring a tropical wave in the Atlantic, designated Invest 97L, which could become a tropical depression.
- Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry has dissipated and is no longer a threat.
- An “invest” is an area of weather the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for potential tropical development.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was causing rough seas far from land early Oct. 12 as National Hurricane Center forecasters shifted their focus to Invest 97L out in the Atlantic, and the nor’easter heading away from Florida toward many coastal states to the north.
Invest 97L could form a tropical depression next week, the National Hurricane Center’s Oct. 12 Tropical Weather Discussion indicated.
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The nor’easter conditions pulled to the north of Florida after rains brought coastal flooding late last week to areas including Edgewater, Brevard County, parts of the Treasure Coast and Jupiter. Rough surf closed a section of the Palm Beaches on Oct. 11.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 a.m. Sunday, Oct. 12:
Where is Invest 97L and what is the forecast?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Forecasters are watching a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands that is associated with a tropical wave. Forecasters are now calling it Invest 97L, or AL97.
The system is forecast to move west-northwest across the central Atlantic, far from the coast of the United States.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of this week,” forecasters said.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 50 percent
What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
Spaghetti models for Invest 97L (AL97)
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
No.
On Saturday, Post Tropical Cyclone Jerry turned northward and dissipated.
What is an invest?
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They’re usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they’ve been designated as an invest does not guarantee they’ll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
What is a nor’easter? Nor’easters vs. hurricanes and tropical storms
A nor’easter is a storm along the East Coast of North America that typically blow over coastal areas. These storms can occur at any time of year but are most frequent and most intense between September and April, according to the National Weather Service.
Nor’easters usually develop between Georgia and New Jersey, within about 100 miles of the coast, and generally move northeastward,
Nor’easters are typically associated with colder seasons and form from a temperature contrast between cold Arctic air and relatively warm Atlantic waters. Tropical storms and hurricanes form over warm tropical or subtropical waters, and predominantly develop in warmer months.
Nor’easters also have a larger wind field, while tropical storms have a well-defined eye with the strongest winds near the center.
Florida weather radar for Oct. 12, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When does hurricane season end?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.
Andrea(June 20)Barry(June 29)Chantal(July 5)Dexter: (Aug. 3)Erin: (Aug. 11; hurricane Aug. 15; major hurricane Aug. 16)Fernand: (Aug. 23)Gabrielle: (Sept. 17; hurricane Sept. 21; major hurricane Sept. 22)Humberto: (Sept. 24; hurricane Sept. 26; major hurricane Sept. 25)Imelda: (Sept. 28; hurricane Sept. 30)- Jerry: Oct. 7
- Karen: Oct. 9
- Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
- Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
- Nestor: NES-tor
- Olga: OAL-guh
- Pablo: PAHB-lo
- Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
- Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
- Tanya: TAHN-yuh
- Van: van
- Wendy: WEN-dee
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters are watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
- Hurricane: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
- Typhoon: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
- Cyclone: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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