There was an interesting sight in Washington this week: Israel and America side by side. Only rather than President Trump and Binyamin Netanyahu, it was their spouses. In her first appearance abroad since the war began last month, Sara Netanyahu was one of 45 first ladies to appear at Melania Trump’s child education conference. She spoke of the online abuse her sons had experienced as a result of their father’s political career.
For all the show of unity, the question being asked behind the scenes is how aligned the two countries are as Trump seeks an off-ramp in the conflict. America entered the war in lockstep with Israel but there are signs the two leaders do not share their end goals. Initially the two men appeared in sync in their comments, or as much as anyone can be with a leader like Trump. Both spoke about regime change and the president told Iranians to seize their only chance to take over the government.
As Trump’s unpopularity rises back home — a Fox News poll this week found his disapproval rating had hit its highest at any point in the two terms — he is looking for a way to keep the conflict to the four to six-week window he and White House aides have promised. Week five begins on Saturday.
It speaks to the different priorities of the two men. For Netanyahu Iran poses an existential threat so there is an appetite to keep going until the regime is destroyed. For Trump it could be enough to simply set the Iranians back a few years militarily.
There are reports that Trump last week knocked back a suggestion by Netanyahu to encourage regime change. Officials say Netanyahu wanted to call on Iranians to flood the streets to protest against their government only for Trump to say it was too risky, fearing mass deaths.
“Why the hell should we tell people to take to the streets when they’ll just get mowed down?” Trump said, an official told Axios.
Netanyahu later said that revolution in Iran would require a ground game.
While the US is deploying troops to the region, the jury is out on whether Trump will find an exit or grow frustrated and opt for escalation in an effort to get there. At a cabinet meeting on Thursday he talked of good progress with the help of Pakistan acting as an intermediary, saying that Iran let ten oil ships through the Strait of Hormuz as a gift to the US.
Israel is accelerating its attacks while it can.
For Trump it is not just a question of bloodshed. He is also facing a restive base. This week conservative activists have gathered in Dallas, Texas, for one of their largest annual gatherings, the Conservative Political Action Conference.
Trump skipping the event this year is a stark contrast to last year when fresh from election victory, he gave the keynote speech and Elon Musk happily waved a chainsaw on stage to celebrate his Department of Government Efficiency, which has been largely wound down.
While White House aides are keen to point to polling that shows Republicans are still largely behind the president, the issue of the war is a discussion at the gathering. Activists wearing “Make Iran Great Again” T-shirts are in attendance.
Compared with the rival event Turning Point, there is a more pro-Israeli feel to the gathering with prayers on Wednesday including America and Israel.
One of the speakers is Steve Bannon, an adviser to Trump in his first term, who has warned that Republicans will “bleed support” before the midterms if the war becomes a “hard slog”. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled crown prince of Iran, is also on the roster to speak on Friday with plans to pitch himself as an alternative to the regime, although Trump has so far appeared cold on the idea. It is those arguing for regime change who could face the toughest audience with the base.
One of the complaints of the voices in Maga criticising the war is the role of Israel. A poll by Pew Research last March found that 50 per cent of younger Republicans had a negative view of Israel.
These figures point to Marco Rubio’s comments in the days after the strikes when he justified the US decision to launch a war against Iran by saying Israel was preparing to strike.
Rubio said: “We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces” by the Iranian regime so pre-emptive strikes were necessary.
Trump later gave a different reason and Rubio walked back the comments, pointing to the fact he also said: “This had to happen no matter what.”
To many in Maga, Rubio said the quiet bit out loud: this is Israel’s war and America has been dragged into it. They are looking to Trump for a way out.
