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Kalshi’s American Power Index, known as KPOW, is a real-money composite that aggregates prediction market probabilities across the major levers of U.S. federal power. A reading of +4.8D means the aggregate signal leans Democratic by that margin, drawn from live contracts where traders are putting actual capital behind their convictions.
A 91% probability on Democratic House control prices the sweep scenario as the base case, with Senate control at 63% and the 2028 presidential race at 60% for Democrats.
For investors, a unified Democratic government carries direct implications for tax policy, energy regulation, and health care legislation. Those sectors have historically repriced when the legislative path to major policy shifts becomes clear, and a 91% House probability makes that path look very short.
Keep an eye on the KPOW index as election day approaches, since any narrowing in the House probability is the first signal that the sweep trade is getting crowded or challenged by new information.
