You May Also Like
A member of the League of Women Voters of Greater Cleveland helps hold the flag during the national anthem before a basketball game on Oct. 26, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio.
Jason Miller/Getty Images
hide caption
Jason Miller/Getty Images
📲 Get the latest on the midterms & more in the NPR App
Democrats retain significant midterm electoral advantages, with key data pointing to them being the favorites to win control of the U.S. House. But, there are indications of why a potential wave could be limited, a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds.
The poll also sheds light on the issues driving voters across the ideological spectrum. The cost of living continues to be top of mind overall with a third of people saying they’ve experienced financial hardship in the past year and 4 in 10 saying their personal finances have gotten worse.
“The economy is at the top of my list right now,” said Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old from Arizona who participated in the poll. He’s an independent who leans toward Democrats and said high food and gas prices are a strain.
“They’re too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for,” he said. “They’re just too expensive for the American people in general, and I don’t like that.”
Preserving democracy also continues to resonate with Democrats and independents, while immigration is the biggest concern for self-described MAGA supporters.
The poll of 1,289 registered voters was conducted Oct. 19-20. When registered voters are mentioned, the margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. When likely voters are mentioned, it is +/- 3.8 points.
Most don’t think Trump is doing a good job and don’t like him
This was the first survey this cycle that Marist applied a likely voter screen, and on multiple questions, likely voters were — within the margin of error — slightly less likely than registered voters to disapprove of the president. Likely voters overall were also slightly less likely to want Democrats to run Congress.
Likely voters are something of a special sauce in polling. Survey researchers apply various metrics — like levels of enthusiasm, past voting history and how important voting is to different respondents — to try to identify the subsample of people who are most likely to vote.
In this survey, just 38% of registered voters approved of the job President Trump is doing, with 61% disapproving (-23). Likely voters gave him a 40% to 59% rating (-19), still not very good, but even a slight margin can make a difference in how significant the gains either party might make in the election are.
That said, an equal share — 53% — of registered and likely voters said they “strongly disapprove” of the job Trump is doing, tied with last month as the highest ever in the poll.
Trump’s favorability rating is even lower — just 37% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Trump, while 59% have a negative one.
Democrats retain the edge on the congressional ballot
Democrats also had a strong advantage on which party’s candidate people said they are more likely to vote for in their district if the election were held today, known as the generic congressional ballot. Among registered voters, it was a 10-point advantage. With likely voters, it was 8 points, still indicative of Democratic gains.
When Democrats have had that kind of lead on the congressional ballot, they have historically done very well. On average, it was +7 in 2018 and +12 in 2006. In both years, Democrats won the House with at least 30 seats flipped.
But that was before the 2020 Census and ensuing regular redistricting — and the rare, mid-decade redistricting in the last year and a half after Trump asked Republican states to redraw their maps to potentially give Republicans more seats. Though Democrats followed suit, both redistricting periods have tilted congressional seats in Republicans’ direction and given them a relative advantage nationally.
Perhaps because of some of those structural disadvantages and past performance, there is a notable degree of nervousness among Democrats.
While 98% of Democratic likely voters said they would vote for a Democrat, just 81% thought the Democrat would win, a 17-point difference. Republicans were only 10 points less likely to believe their candidate would win. Notably, among independents, a higher share thought the Democratic candidate would win.
‘Change’ continues to be powerful
Working in Democrats’ favor — and against incumbents: 55% of likely voters said it’s more important in this election to vote for candidates with new ideas who will bring about change. (It was a tick higher with registered voters at 57%.)
Chris Agan, a 43-year-old Democrat in Tyler, Texas, who participated in the survey, never saw himself as an impassioned midterm voter, until this year.
“This year is different. This year, it feels like every opportunity to vote is a referendum against the party in power,” said Agan, who’s backing Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate.
“We’ve been seeing a very slow decline in the standard of living in this state, and it’s becoming apparently evident to more people at this time,” he added. “I think Talarico embodies that realization that there needs to be change.”
Double the percentage of likely voters also said their vote would be one against Trump (44%) as opposed to one for him (21%). In the 2024 presidential election, 55% of those who voted for Trump said their vote was for their candidate, according to exit polls.
Trump is not on the ballot, but he has asked voters to “pretend” he is.
Though Trump’s unpopularity poses challenges for Republicans, it may not directly translate to more votes for Democrats. Some swing voters don’t like the lurch in some corners of the Democratic Party toward democratic socialism.
Matthew Schroder is a 38-year-old independent living in Charlotte, N.C., who was part of the poll. He backed Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024. Now, he says that while he’s unhappy with Trump’s job performance, it isn’t what’s driving his vote this year.
“What I have seen on the left-hand side is a little bit more of an embrace of democratic socialism, which I just oppose completely,” said Schroder, who’s supporting Republican Michael Whatley over Democrat Roy Cooper in the state’s closely watched race for U.S. Senate.
“I know Roy Cooper is considered a moderate, but the fact that the Democratic Party is even letting some of these voices be heard a little bit more … is not something I’m interested in in the least,” he added. “It’s not a vote of ‘yes for Trump’ as much as a vote of, Democrats need to completely reject [democratic socialism] and go a completely different direction.”
Democrats also have the enthusiasm advantage, but there are some caution flags, too
Democratic likely voters are 10 points more likely to say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting (71% vs. 61%). That’s actually wider than the difference between Democratic and Republican registered voters in the poll.
The caution for Democrats, though, is that several of their key pillar groups are not very enthusiastic to vote, and Republicans have closed the gap on who is following the election “very closely.”
Just 42% of likely voters under 45, 53% of non-white voters and 56% of white women with college degrees said they are “very enthusiastic” to vote. All of those groups disapproved of the job Trump is doing.
Compare that to pro-Trump groups — MAGA voters (68%), white women without degrees (66%) and white evangelical voters (61%).
For independents, 48% report being very enthusiastic to vote.
Traditionally, younger, as well as Black and Latino voters turn out at disproportionately lower rates in midterm elections. But with the realignment under Trump, more white, college-educated voters are voting Democratic and, as a group, they turn out at the highest rates.
When it comes to paying close attention, last month just 34% of registered Republicans said they’re following the election very closely, compared to 42% of Democrats.
Now, they’re even – 46% of Democrats and 45% of Republicans said they’re paying very close attention. When it comes to likely voters, there’s no difference either – 51% of Democrats to 50% of Republicans.
On the positive side for Democrats: those who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024 are 15 points more likely than Trump 2024 voters to say they are very enthusiastic. And Democrats overall have an 8-point advantage over Republicans when it comes to who cares a “great deal” about who controls Congress.
Most are confident elections will be fair and accurate, but Republicans lag
Three-quarters of likely voters are confident that their state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election.
That includes solid majorities of Democrats (88%), Republicans (68%) and independents (75%), but Republicans were 20 points less likely than Democrats to think they would be run well. MAGA supporters were almost 30 points less likely.
Large majorities also said their preferred candidate should accept the results of the election. That included 70% of Republicans, but again, they were 20 points less likely than Democrats to say they should accept the results. A quarter of Republicans said their candidate should probably or definitely challenge the results.
There was also a sharp divide between those who identified as democratic socialists and MAGA supporters — 86% of democratic socialists but only 65% of MAGA supporters said their preferred candidate should accept the result. MAGA supporters were twice as likely to say they should challenge.
Other key issues
- Personal finances: 38% said their personal finances have gotten worse in the past year, though 44% said they’ve stayed about the same. Younger generations are experiencing more financial insecurity than older ones. And they’re more likely to have moved, changed jobs or lost one in the past year.
- AI continues to face an uphill public-opinion challenge: 6-in-10 said the construction of new data centers will mostly have a negative impact on the country, though majorities of Republicans and MAGA supporters said it would be a net-positive. An even higher percentage (66%) said they oppose construction of a data center in their community. Republicans are split on this, but Democrats and independents overwhelmingly oppose them. The intensity of opposition is pretty high, as well, with 41% saying they strongly oppose them.
- Immigration: 61% said immigrants should have a way to stay in the country legally if they meet certain requirements. Two-thirds of Republicans, though, said they should be required to leave.
- Government continues to be a sharp dividing line: 57% said government is almost always wasteful and inefficient. That included majorities of Republicans and independents. Almost 6 in 10 Democrats, though, said government often does a better job than people give it credit for. That also included 59% of democratic socialists.
- People are split on guns: 48% said it’s more important to pass stricter gun-control laws, while 46% said protecting the right of Americans to own guns was the higher priority. While independents were largely split, roughly 9 in 10 Democrats said gun control and 85% of Republicans said gun rights.
- Theoretical belief in equality: People were asked which comes closer to their view – An ideal society needs equality for all groups or one that needs some groups to be on top and others to be on the bottom – 70% said equality, though Republicans were largely split. Meanwhile, this is a core pillar for democratic socialists, as 97% of them surveyed said equality.
Methodology: This NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll was conducted from Oct. 19-20 and surveyed a national sample of 1,289 registered voters. They were reached through a multi-mode design: by phone, text or online. To create a likely voter sample, Marist applied a likely voter weight to all registered voters. When registered voters are mentioned, the margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. When likely voters are mentioned, it is +/- 3.8 points. That means results fall within a range of roughly eight points – about four points lower or higher.
