Boise State vs. South Florida picks, odds: Model reveals free Week 1 college football predictions for Aug. 28
The South Florida Bulls will host the No. 25 Boise State Broncos in a 2025 college football Week 1 battle on Thursday. The Broncos topped the Mountain West last season with a perfect 7-0 conference record and 12-2 record overall, going 5-1 away from Albertsons Stadium. They visit a South Florida side that finished 7-6 on the season and was 3-3 at home. This is the first-ever meeting between these teams.
Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa is set for 5:30 p.m. ET. The Broncos are 5.5-point favorites in the latest South Florida vs. Boise State odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 62 in the latest CFB odds. Before making any Boise State vs. South Florida picks, make sure you check out the picks from the SportsLine projection model. New users at bet365 can get $200 in bonus bets instantly with the latest bet365 bonus code for Thursday’s game:
Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns, especially when paired with the latest BetMGM bonus code and DraftKings promo code, just to name a few. Speaking of DraftKings, you can get $300 in bonus bets after new users bet at least $5 with their first wager, in addition to more than $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Claim that offer here:
Here are SportsLine model’s best bets for South Florida vs. Boise State on Thursday:
Boise State -5.5
These opponents finished with similar records against the spread last season, with South Florida going 7-6 ATS while Boise State was 7-7 ATS. Bulls quarterback Byrum Brown looks to return to his record-setting ways after a leg injury derailed his 2024 season. The Broncos have confidence in quarterback Maddux Madsen, who threw for 3,018 yards and had 23 touchdowns last fall and will be going up against a South Florida defense that allowed the second-most passing yards per game (278.8) in the AAC last fall. The SportsLine model projects the visiting Broncos will cover the spread in well over 60% of simulations.
Under 62
While the Broncos defense allowed 363.7 total yards per game last year, they have key tacklers returning in 2025 and added to their secondary in the offseason. This unit could keep Brown and the South Florida offense from making the explosive plays they require to climb up the scoreboard. Boise State also ended last season hitting the Under in three of their last four games despite having superstar running back Ashton Jeanty to bulldoze downfield. The model has these teams combining for 61 points, with the Under hitting in almost 60% of simulations.
Want more college football picks for Week 1?
You’ve seen the model’s top Boise State vs. South Florida picks for Week 1. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every Week 1 CFB game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Want more from SportsLine? See the top Week 1 college football picks from college football expert Bruce Marshall, who is on a 56-34-3 roll (+1833) on his last 93 CFB ATS picks, and has revealed his best bet for this game.
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