‘A net negative’: Why Trump’s midterm blitz is starting far from the battlegrounds

President Donald Trump has promised to campaign in the country’s 35 most competitive races before Election Day. But his midterm blitz opens this week in friendly territory — Alabama, Oklahoma and Texas — and that may be by design.

Trump visiting a swing district would “be a net negative for the candidate there,” said a White House official, granted anonymity to discuss political strategy candidly. “The closer the race, the more the [Republican candidate] is trying to break from President Trump.”

Others inside and around the White House describe the same logic: keep Trump away from contested races, where moderate voters who are unenthusiastic about him cast the decisive ballots.

Friendly territory also suits Trump himself. “The rallies are like a sacred thing for President Trump, and they always have been,” the White House official said. “He would rather spend his last election cycle having big MAGA rallies — and you get those in Oklahoma and Texas and in Alabama and Florida.”

The tour begins Thursday at a truck factory in Denton, Texas. Next comes a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, where Republican gubernatorial hopeful Mike Mazzei is expected to win comfortably, and a stop in Mobile, Alabama, in a Democratic-held House district newly redrawn to lean Republican.

It follows a relatively light September on the campaign trail. Trump held the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention in Texas and a rally in North Carolina, but otherwise spent much of the month on international relations. He traveled to Ireland, met world leaders at the U.N. General Assembly and hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House.

That’s a slower start than the last time Trump faced a midterm election as president. As early as September 2018, he was already hopscotching from Montana and Nevada to Missouri and West Virginia to campaign in some of that year’s most competitive Senate races.

This year, Republicans in some of the closest races are keeping their distance from Trump to varying degrees, and GOP operatives have spent weeks privately encouraging them to. In recent days, it has shown: Republican Senate candidates in Iowa, Ohio and Michigan have called for an end to the Iran war, as have GOP candidates for governor in Michigan and Wisconsin. Some battleground Republicans have advocated for a pause or restrictions on data centers even as the president pushes to build more.

Trump has waved off signs of trouble. Appearing with artificial intelligence industry executives at the White House on Tuesday, he was asked about battleground Republicans breaking with him. “I don’t think there’s much difference,” he said. He added that he could persuade communities to welcome data centers by campaigning, while touting potential financial benefits for local residents. A day earlier, he was asked why Republicans in states he carried by wide margins, like Iowa, are having to fight harder this year to hold their seats. He said he was “surprised” to hear it, and touted his administration’s efforts to court farmers.

Asked about the trend of Republicans distancing themselves from Trump, another White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that it “could not be further from the truth.”

“All year, President Trump has traveled around the country sharing the achievements of his administration with Republicans,” the official said. “There is absolutely no distance between them.”

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle pointed to Trump’s hold on his base. “No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement, and the President understands how to communicate with them,” he said in a statement.

Some prominent Republicans see the red-state start as a sign that the party is on its back foot, fighting in territories Republicans couldn’t have imagined having to actively defend just one year ago. One of them, a Trump fundraiser, told MS NOW that while the president’s travel schedule did not seem “odd” to them, it reflected the midterm reality: “No district is immune.”

“It’s a tough political environment,” said the Trump fundraiser, who was granted anonymity to candidly assess the election. “He’s got headwinds because of the war, because of affordability, because of tariffs. He’s got to go make the case to get his base back, to be motivated to get off the couch and go pull a lever in an election where he’s not on the ballot.”

Whether he can is an open question. Trump’s approval ratings are low — especially on the cost of living, a core midterm issue. And in audio obtained by The New York Times, Ken Paxton, the GOP Senate nominee in Texas, reportedly told conservative donors that the party’s Texas convention had hurt Republicans in key races. Party leaders had dubbed the convention “Trumpapalooza.”

More articles

“Everybody’s numbers dropped,” Paxton said in the recording. In a statement to the Times, a senior Paxton adviser called the reporting “more manipulated nonsense from The New York Times to create a story that doesn’t exist.” 

Speaking with reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday, Trump said he had not heard about the Times’ reporting, but touted viewership numbers from the midterm convention, calling it “amazing.”

Not every Republican reads Trump’s schedule as avoidance. Some GOP operatives argue that he has time for both offense and defense, and the opening swing will reach contested ground. After Alabama, Trump’s next stop will be Vandalia, Ohio, where Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces a tough race against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Then, on Monday, Trump will be back in safer territory: Nebraska, where Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent candidate Dan Osborn, with no Democrat in the race.

Others say the early red state stops are about doing favors for candidates and reaching key media markets. Mazzei asked Trump’s team for a joint rally to fire up the MAGA base, according to a person familiar with the request, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share a private detail.

That person and a second GOP operative said the Durant stop will also likely reach the Dallas-Fort Worth media market, which is increasingly important in the Texas Senate race. The Alabama stop targets the redrawn 2nd Congressional District, the person familiar with the request added.

“The areas he’s visiting can kill two birds with one stone: rally for a governor while helping a tight House race in the neighboring state,” the second GOP operative said. “Midterms are base elections. The president’s party wins when his people show up.”

A Republican strategist who served as a senior official in Trump’s first administration, speaking on condition of anonymity, called the opening stops a “good start.” The strategist said that Trump is expected to ramp up his campaigning and that friendly red state rallies energize his base nationally.

“I think the goal is to hold together the historic coalition that he was able to build,” the former senior official told MS NOW.

Some Republicans may want Trump at arm’s length, but they still need his voters. But even then, it may not be enough — at least for House races, as many expect a blue wave in November.

“I think we are certain losers if the president can’t motivate his base to vote,” the Trump fundraiser told MS NOW. “And I think we are probable losers if the president can motivate his base to vote.”

Jake Traylor

Jake Traylor is a White House reporter for MS NOW.

Soorin Kim

Soorin Kim is a White House producer with MS NOW.