Could Texas Elect a Democratic Governor? Polls Show a Tight Race

Abbott also has far more campaign resources than Hinojosa, and can outspend his Democratic challenger on TV, radio, and digital media “by a dramatic margin,” Jones says.

“I think we’re still in a situation where Abbott, at the end of the day, should be able to pull this one out, but it’s going to be the smallest margin that he has had in any of his gubernatorial elections,” Jones says.

Blank, meanwhile, says that “right now, this election is really going to hinge on turnout.”

Republicans are expending a lot of effort to mobilize their base to show up at the polls next month. “One of the things to watch is whether or not all of the money that’s being spent now is effective in re-engaging Republicans who would never vote for Democrats, but if enough of them stay home, a Democrat might get elected,” Blank says. “If Republicans are able to turn out their voters, they are almost guaranteed of winning the election.”