PPIC analysis suggests Prop 50 results could bode well for Dems

Proposition 50, which redraws California’s congressional map to favor Democrats, was largely considered to be a referendum on President Donald Trump. In 2024, Trump won both Riverside and San Bernardino counties by razor-thin margins, but Prop 50 passed in both counties by double digits.

The Public Policy Institute of California analyzed exit polling and found that Trump voters supported Prop 50 because they feel let down by Trump not delivering on his campaign promises.

“Many people you know went to the election in 2024 looking for change in economic policies, and they’re not happy with where the economy is and the cost of living and affordability is today,” said Mark Baldassare, the statewide survey director and Miller chair in public policy at PPIC.

Affordability was especially a concern with Latino voters in the Inland Empire, he said.

“A year ago, to some extent, people were blaming the Democrats in power, and now they’re blaming the Republicans in power,” Baldassare said.

Voters also cited Trump’s immigration enforcement policies.

He said Prop 50 had a strong voter turnout for a non-election year, which could indicate that Democrats might have an edge in next year’s midterm elections. PPIC’s analysis of Prop 50 results suggest that the coalition that helped Democrats win the White House in 2020 could be reemerging. Democrats lost a significant portion of support among 18-to-29-year-old and Latino voters. PPIC’s analysis argues that if a yes vote for Prop 50 is treated as a vote for Democrats, Democratic support may be returning to 2020 Democratic levels.