Republicans need to make a solutions-based argument – Roll Call

When the Iran conflict began last spring, many were predicting the election would come down to only a narrow set of congressional districts. But every day that we get closer to Nov. 3, the already large playing field continues to expand. They should have seen this reality, driven by high gas prices, coming. 

According to the Energy Information Administration, for the week ending Oct. 5, gas was at $4.50, all grades and all formulations. When President Trump took office, the price of a gallon of gas was $3.23. One year later (Jan. 12, 2026), Trump administration policies had brought gas prices down 10 percent to $2.91. Since then, gas prices have gone up 55 percent, leaving congressional Republicans climbing a steep hill to maintain their majority this fall.

Anyone who is surprised that economic concerns are the electorate’s top issue has been living in an alternate universe for the past year and a half. Continuing increases in the cost of food and electricity have also heightened voter impatience with what they see as a lack of focus from the Trump administration on kitchen-table issues.

From the recent Winning the Issues survey (Sept. 12-16), an alarming 67 percent believe that inflation is getting worse, and 73 percent say the cost of living is increasing faster than their wages. Overall, only 28 percent think the economy is headed in the right direction, while 64 percent say it is seriously heading off on the wrong track. 

Claiming otherwise, giving the economy an A+ and calling inflation great without context, does little but further irritate already irritable voters. That explains, at least in part, Trump’s awful overall job approval along with his handling of the economy, inflation and tariffs. His disapproval for each of these important indicators is 60 percent or higher; among independents, it’s 70 percent or higher. 

While there are positives within the current economy, the low unemployment rate and the record low poverty rate being two of them, the electorate’s negative attitude toward the administration is beginning to extend to the entire Republican Party already facing historical headwinds. 

When voters were asked which party they have more confidence in to handle a series of economic issues, it wasn’t simply that the Democratic Party leads in all five traditionally Republican issues that sent up red flags. It was the fact that the GOP finds itself below 40 percent in four out of five. 

Handling taxes, which Republicans usually dominate, remained above 40 percent but still behind Democrats. On the issue of the economy, Republicans were at 39 percent. The last time Republicans were at 39 percent was July 2009, in the aftermath of the 2008-09 financial crisis. 

In the January WTI survey, 45 percent of voters said they had more confidence in Republicans to handle the economy, in contrast to Democrats, who were at 42 percent. For the other four economic issues, Republicans were in the mid 40s in terms of the electorate’s confidence in handling them. Voters now view congressional Republicans as acquiescing to Trump on economic issues, particularly tariffs. 

This issue-handling shift is a major part of the reason the generic ballot has become more than problematic for Republicans. In the recent Winning the Issues survey, the Democrats led on the generic ballot by a 9-point margin (51-42), driven largely by independents. In the RCP average, as of Tuesday, Democrats led by 8.2 points (50.4-42.2). 

The result? The map of competitive races continues to expand. 

In the Senate, there are now 11 competitive races, with South Carolina potentially being the 12th. Of those, I have six as toss-ups. (Cook Report has seven, and Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia has four.) 

Within those six are four Republican seats — Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas — where Trump won in 2024 with margins between +11 and +14. That there are four states in the mix with Trump margins over 10 may have significant implications for the House. 

Competitive races in the House are more difficult to peg in part because of recent redistricting. The starting point for many analysts has been the 2024 presidential results using 2026 congressional district lines. 

In this scenario, Trump carried 234 districts, 32 by less than 10 points. Harris won 201. But using Trump-Harris assumes the 2026 environment is similar to 2024. It isn’t. For example, in the 2024 exit poll, Trump’s favorable-unfavorable was at -7 (46-53). His current RCP average has him at -20 (39-59). 

So, the 2020 presidential results for each district may provide some critical context when trying to determine the number of House seats in play. Trump won the 2024 popular vote by 1.47 points, while Biden won 2020 by 4.45 points. As a result, there are 19 current districts that Trump won in 2024 that Biden won in 2020 based on lining up his vote to 2026 lines. 

On the other hand, our WTI survey found that despite Democrats’ generic ballot lead, both parties are equally underwater. Republicans in Congress have a favorable-unfavorable of 39-58, while Democrats in Congress are at 40-56. 

Among independents, it’s much worse for both, with Republicans at 27-69 and Democrats at 32-64. Twenty-five percent of the electorate has a negative view of both parties, as do 44 percent of independents. 

So, a month out from the election, voters don’t see themselves having a good choice. They do remember the Biden years, but think Republicans have not yet solved the problem of the economy. By putting himself “on the ballot,” the president has given people a way to send him a message by voting against Republicans.

But Democrats have their own problem. The emergence of the Democratic Socialists of America as a political force and the successes of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party in the primaries has added an unexpected element to the campaign environment. The country isn’t yearning for a socialist government despite its unhappiness with the economy. Moreover, many of the Democratic candidates in competitive races, especially for the Senate, are far more extreme than most voters. 

That gives Republicans an opening — but hyperbolic attacks on Democrats as socialists or communists won’t be enough. Republicans need to persuade the country that their ideas have made progress and will eventually fix the economy. 

A “solutions” argument is there to be made, if Republicans can get to it. 

David Winston is the president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to congressional Republicans. He previously served as the director of planning for Speaker Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, as well as serving as an election analyst for CBS News.