VIEW LARGER A sign directs voters to the polling site at Miller-Golf Links Library in east Tucson for Arizona’s primary election on Tuesday, July 21, 2026.
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L. M. Boyd
As Election Day approaches, new polling data is revealing major shifts in Arizona’s electorate that could have an impact on the gubernatorial race. The data also shows just how important water is to voters this cycle.
Trump voters back Hobbs
The poll from Equis Research found that Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs is leading by about seven points over Republican candidate Andy Biggs in the race to become Arizona’s governor for the next four years. Notably, that margin includes substantial support from voters who cast their ballot for President Trump in 2024.
According to the poll, about 10% of 2024 Trump voters are backing Hobbs this year. The trend is larger for Latino Trump voters, 15% of whom are voting for the Democrat.
Equis surveyed over 1,200 Arizona voters, including 400 Latinos, for its research and reported a margin of error of 3.2%. The findings were more conservative than other recent polling, some of which has estimated Hobbs’ lead at 17 points.
The trends in the gubernatorial race sit within a generally favorable environment for Democrats as gas prices hit record highs and affordability remains the top issue for voters.
Many pollsters have argued that the positive numbers for Democrats are more attributable to a “red undertow” than a “blue wave” due to unpopular policies passed by President Trump and low approval ratings for the larger Democratic Party. However, the Equis findings indicate that Hobbs’ lead is at least partly attributable to her personal popularity. According to the poll, she enjoys a 51% approval rating among Arizona swing voters, the majority of whom lean Republican.
By contrast, President Trump’s approval rating among those same swing voters sits at 38%, despite having won the state in 2024.
The President visited Bullhead City, Ariz. earlier this week to drum up support for Biggs, whom Hobbs has outspent six to one in the gubernatorial race thus far, according to the Equis report.
Water remains a top issue
The Equis poll also found that after affordability and cost of living, concern over water is the second-most important issue for Arizona voters, with 23% of voters citing it as their number one priority.
According to the report, over two-thirds of Arizona voters are also in favor of greater regulations on data centers, either in the form of reduced tax breaks or an outright pause on new development.
The findings come as Arizona faces significant cuts to the amount of water it receives from the Colorado River in the coming years, and as politicians’ support for data center development has come under increasing scrutiny.
Voting for the Arizona midterm elections is already underway, with early mail-in ballots having been distributed last week.
