Tennessee vs. ETSU game prediction with EA Sports College Football 26

• The Tennessee Volunteers are predicted to win their home opener against East Tennessee State University.
• We ran 100 simulations using the EA Sports College Football 26 video game to predict the score and stats.
• Because ETSU is not in the game, fan-made versions of the team were used for this week’s simulations.
• Across 100 simulations, the average predicted score was Tennessee 41, ETSU 19.

The Tennessee Volunteers defeated the Syracuse Orange in Week 1 − just as we predicted using EA Sports College Football 26 − and now we’re back to see how the Vols might fare in their home opener by running 100 simulations of their Sept. 6 game vs. East Tennessee State University at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville.

The video game, which is available on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, favored Tennessee over Syracuse by an average score of 22-15. The real outcome was 45-26, which was close to two of our 100 simulations that ended with a 45-24 Vols victory,

We’ll continue running these simulations throughout the season, offering previews and predictions for No. 17 Tennessee’s biggest matchups, including No. 3 Georgia next week and the fabled Third Saturday in October rivalry with Alabama later this year.

Unfortunately, ETSU isn’t included in the video game, but loyal fans have made their own versions of the Bucs that are available to download. The two versions of the team that have the most downloads feature noticeably different player attributes and team stats. One team was on par with the Vols, while the other was much weaker.

We decided to have a little fun with our process this week, simulating 50 games against the weaker team and 50 games against the stronger. All games were simulated at Neyland Stadium with a 3:30 p.m. kickoff and overcast conditions to match the weather prediction at the time of simulating.

EA Sports rankings: Tennessee football’s top player in the College Football 26 video game

Tennessee vs. ETSU: EA Sports College Football 26 results

The Tennessee Volunteers absolutely dominated the weaker ETSU, going a perfect 50-0. The stronger ETSU team put up a fight, though UT still took home a majority of victories, going 33-17. Combined, Tennessee won 83 out of 100 games against ETSU.

The Vols defense squashed the weaker ETSU team, only letting them score more than 10 points in 17 simulations. The Vols also had four shutouts.

The stronger ETSU team, however, had several close games, scoring more than 20 points in 38 simulations. The Vols won two out of three overtime duels against the stronger ETSU squad (no games went to overtime against the weaker team).

• Predicted score: Tennessee 41, ETSU 19 (based on average points across 100 simulations)
• Tennessee average yards: 192.09 rushing, 281.46 passing, 568.53 total (including special teams)
• Syracuse average yards: 69.68 rushing, 254.78 passing, 450.44 total (including special teams)
• Total turnovers: ETSU turned the ball over 168 times, compared to UT’s 56 turnovers

Knox News columnist John Adams predicts a larger disparity in the game, picking Tennessee over ETSU by a score of 51-10. Several of our simulations had Tennessee scoring 51 points.

Here are some more highlights from our second week of simulations:

• Biggest UT win: 71-3
• Biggest ETSU win: 38-6
• Highest scoring game: 49-47, Tennessee in overtime
• Lowest scoring game: 24-3, Tennessee
• Biggest surprise: Just for fun, I ran an additional 50 simulations with the weaker ETSU team to see what the difference might be. Overall, the stats increased for UT and decreased for ETSU, and the Vols won every single game. My favorite moment happened in what would have been Game 98, in which the Vols beat the Bucs 90-0.

Joining higher education reporter Keenan Thomas this year is business growth and development editor Ryan Wilusz − because simulating 100 games all on your own can be quite the tedious process.

Keep up with the University of Tennessee at Knoxville by signing up for Keenan’s free weekly newsletter, “The T,” where he highlights the latest happenings on campus while spotlighting students and alumni. Mainly interested in sports? Get the daily GoVolsXtra newsletter sent straight to your inbox.

You can sign up for both at knoxnews.com/newsletters.

Keenan Thomas is the higher education reporter for Knox News. Email keenan.thomas@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter @specialk2real. Ryan Wilusz is the business growth and development editor. Phone 865-317-5138. Email ryan.wilusz@knoxnews.com. Instagram @knoxscruff.

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