THE TOP
Happy Friday morning. And happy Halloween.
It’s Day 31 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight to this crisis.
Leader Look. One of our recurring features at Punchbowl News is “Leader Look,” an analysis of the Big Four congressional leaders. The extraordinary circumstances surrounding the shutdown — including President Donald Trump’s renewed offensive against the Senate filibuster — have made everything much more complicated.
Today we’re going to look at Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, the two most important Hill players in this drama.
Thune and Schumer. No one has more at stake politically during the shutdown than Schumer — inside his caucus, back home and among Democrats nationally. Thune, GOP leaders and the White House have all tried to label this the “Schumer Shutdown” for a reason. Schumer’s own political future, and his role as Democratic leader beyond 2026, have become linked to the shutdown’s outcome.
Yet Republicans underestimated Schumer’s ability to keep Democrats in line. They believed moderate Democrats would quickly fold when faced with a shutdown threat. That’s proven wildly wrong. Schumer has been able to prevent additional defections after, on the eve of the shutdown, three Senate Democrats voted for the House-passed CR.
Yes, Schumer committed a major gaffe when he said “Every day gets better for us” during the shutdown. He was hammered mercilessly for the remark.
But Republicans — particularly Trump — have failed to take full advantage of the shutdown to hammer Schumer, especially since Senate Democrats are the ones who caused the shutdown by filibustering the GOP’s Nov. 21 stopgap funding bill. A Washington Post-ABC-Ipsos poll showed Trump and Republicans are losing the shutdown messaging fight.
Trump and White House officials have used several different attack lines against Schumer, which is part of the problem.
They claimed Schumer shut down the government “over free healthcare for illegal aliens.” Then Trump said Schumer is “afraid that [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is] going to run against him” in 2028. Schumer was waiting for after the “No Kings” rally to cave, they argued.
OMB Director Russ Vought canceled funding for the massive Gateway Tunnel transit project, hurting New York (and the whole East Coast.) Trump accused Schumer and Senate Democrats of “holding the entire federal government hostage,” even as federal layoffs by Vought prompted a backlash from some Senate Republicans.
Trump also has focused heavily on foreign policy during the last few weeks, including Thursday’s high-profile meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This has helped Schumer and Senate Democrats portray Trump as aloof.
After being absent from the shutdown fight for days, Trump launched a barrage of Truth Social posts late Thursday night, including one calling for the end of the filibuster, something he’s demanded for years. Trump declared: “INITIATE THE “NUCLEAR OPTION,” GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Trump’s move has the potential to create a new rift with Senate Republicans just as they feel they can get the upper hand on the shutdown fight. It’s exactly what Thune has been trying to avoid.
As for Schumer, he now faces the difficult part of this partisan conflict — how to end it. With SNAP funding running out on Nov. 1, more than 40 million Americans could be directly impacted.
Democrats blame the Trump administration for not tapping into an emergency fund, while the White House points right back at Schumer. The risk here for Schumer and the Democrats is that the pain caused by the shutdown overwhelms their health-care message.
So Schumer has to choose an endpoint. Bipartisan FY2026 spending talks have picked up among rank-and-file senators. But no spending package is anywhere close to moving to the floor. Plus, that won’t resolve the Obamacare subsidies dispute, the key to the shutdown.
There’s lots of discussion that Schumer could use potential Democratic gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey on Nov. 4 (the Garden State race is close) coupled with a Prop 50 victory in California as a potential off ramp. Remember, Schumer doesn’t necessarily need a direct vote on the Obamacare subsidies. He may not even want one at this point, especially since it might not pass.
For Thune, one of his most difficult jobs during the shutdown — during any crisis, frankly — is keeping Trump in line. Aside from a messaging flub early on, Trump’s shutdown messaging has remained consistent with where Thune is. That was until Trump’s filibuster musings last night. Democrats continue to believe Trump will somehow cave and force Thune to negotiate with them on Obamacare, so it’s important for Republicans to remain in sync.
Yet Thune has also sought to diminish Schumer’s role in any deal to end the showdown. Thune believes Schumer has boxed himself in so much that the New York Democrat isn’t even worth dealing with, arguing that any resolution will come through a negotiation with the rank-and-file Democrats.
Thune may hope this, but it’s extremely difficult to end the shutdown without Schumer. Boxing Schumer out will make other Democrats — especially the moderates Thune wants to woo — uneasy. Thune actually acknowledged that point on Thursday.
And remember the “rifle shot” strategy? Thune teased potential votes on one-off funding bills that would have removed key pain points such as military and air traffic controller pay. But this would have put Thune at odds with Speaker Mike Johnson and the White House, both of whom opposed these maneuvers.
Thune quickly shifted gears and opted to keep up the pressure on Democrats to end the shutdown — only to see Democrats conveniently push the same strategy.
– John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman
November Events: We’re sitting down with House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chair Sam Graves (R-Mo.) on Tuesday, Nov. 4 at 9:30 a.m. ET. Punchbowl News Founder Jake Sherman will talk to Graves about the news of the day, FEMA reform efforts and the role that the federal government plays in disaster response and recovery. RSVP here!
