The Democrats are at it again, fiddling with the presidential nominating calendar in hopes of achieving the impossible — making it even-handed towards the party’s various voting groups without favoring any of the large field of potential candidates.
Their latest iteration: They placed South Carolina’s predominantly Black Democratic electorate in the coveted first spot on the calendar, ahead of the contests in overwhelmingly white Iowa and New Hampshire.
Iowa, which botched the counting of its presidential caucuses in both 2016 and 2020, was again pushed totally out of the early group of influential states, behind the multi-state early March Super Tuesday primaries. New Hampshire was placed third, after South Carolina and Nevada.
History has shown it is very difficult to predict the results from the order of the contests. The fact that the South Carolina Democratic electorate is more than half Black neither guarantees success by a Black candidate nor a significant boost to one who did win.
In addition, even if the full Democratic National Convention ratifies this calendar, three factors will impact the decision by its Rules and Bylaws Committee:
1. The Republicans are likely to keep the calendar they have used for the last several election cycles. That means the GOP race will start with the Iowa caucuses, probably on Jan. 3, 2028, followed by the New Hampshire GOP primary on Tuesday, Jan. 11. Several prominent Republicans have talked of running, even if President Donald Trump tries to anoint a successor.
2. That means that, no matter what Democratic rule-makers say, the first Democratic primary will be in New Hampshire, on the same day as the Republicans. State law requires it. So, if the South Carolina Democratic primary is scheduled for Saturday, Jan. 22, there will be a New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, Jan. 11.
It may not allocate the Granite state’s small trove of Democratic delegates. But it is hard to see serious Democratic candidates failing to take the opportunity to gain the psychological boost of an early victory there. Iowa Democrats could hold a non-binding straw poll at their precinct caucuses a week earlier, but they won’t decide until later.
3. Despite the effort to empower groups like South Carolina’s African Americans and Nevada’s Hispanics, money will be more important than ever. The Democrats’ proportional allocation of delegates encourages more candidates to stay in the nominating race for a longer period than the GOP’s winner-take-all rules, regardless of the early results, assuming they have the resources.
Joe Biden finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire in 2020, before rebounding with second in Nevada and scoring his breakthrough victory in South Carolina. The likely size of the field may mean that a candidate has to win at least one of the earliest contests to become a major contender for the nomination.
The purpose of the new configuration is to create early contests in all parts of the country, in states with different electorates. So, after South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, the early contests will include New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia.
Even before the final calendar is approved, some prospective candidates have been scheduling appearances based on their expectation of where the early contests will be. ABC News reported late last year that the three most visited states were Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, with Nevada and New Mexico close behind.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, one of the most active Democratic travelers, made a two-day swing through South Carolina; other visitors included former Vice President Kamala Harris, Govs. Wes Moore of Maryland and Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Rep. Ro Khanna of California and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
The Nevada Independent tracked visits to the state by 13 prospective Democratic candidates and four Republicans.
Early polling has mainly reflected the degree of name identification of some prospective candidates. The four who poll the best nationally are Harris, Newsom, 2020 candidate and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite of party progressives.
A recent University of New Hampshire poll put Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg at the top.
In 2020, 29 Democrats formally sought their party’s presidential nomination and a dozen more considered running. Judging from early signs, that number may be exceeded in 2028, given the Democratic optimism that Trump’s unpopularity will boost their party’s chances.
This November’s midterm results may not even be final when the first 2028 hopefuls declare their candidacies.
But the size of the field and the complexities stemming from the primary calendar suggest it may be sometime in the spring of 2028 before the shape of the race becomes clear.
