Alabama vs. Florida State prediction, pick, odds, spread, where to watch live

Two iconic programs open their 2025 seasons on a national stage in Week 1 when No. 8 Alabama visits Florida State.

The Crimson Tide enter the year ranked in the top 10 as they look to rebound from what qualifies as a “down” season: a 9-4 finish in Kalen DeBoer’s debut after replacing Nick Saban. Alabama missed the College Football Playoff, lost its bowl to Michigan and now turns to new starting quarterback Ty Simpson. Still, the roster returns enough experience and talent to fuel another push for an SEC title and playoff contention.

Florida State’s bounce-back attempt carries even more urgency. The Seminoles followed a 13-1 playoff campgaign in 2023 with a shocking 2-10 collapse in 2024 — one of the steepest year-to-year drop-offs in modern college football. The free fall prompted coach Mike Norvell to overhaul his staff and dive deep into the transfer portal. Early signs point to more stability, but this opener should serve as a clear measuring stick for how close Florida State is to rejoining the championship conversation.

Alabama vs. Florida State: Need to know

Year 2 bump for Kalen DeBoer: While DeBoer’s nine-win debut with Alabama matched the most victories for a Crimson Tide coach in their first season on the job, fans are anxious to see whether the patented “Year 2 bump” is in store for 2025. Previous stops at Sioux Falls (NAIA), Fresno State and Washington all saw DeBoer lead his team to at least a three-win increase on the final record from the first season to the second. And it wasn’t just the wins, but postseason accolades too, as Year 2 at Sioux Falls included an NAIA National Championship and Year 2 at Washington had the Huskies finishing as the runner-up to Michigan. 

New coordinators highlight Mike Norvell’s offseason adjustments: While Mike Norvell has long been a primary voice in the offensive braintrust, he’s brought in a heavy hitter to serve as offensive coordinator with the hire of Gus Malzahn. The former Auburn and UCF head coach has plenty of history with Alabama, knocking off the Tide in 2013, 2017 and 2019. Perhaps he’s cooked up enough with new Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos to add another upset to his personal rivalry. 

Just as important to improving the offense and quarterback play is solidifying the defense, and that’s where former Nebraska defensive coordinator Tony White enters the picture. Florida State finished with a top 30 defense from 2021-23, but saw a massive drop off last season, ranking 83rd nationally giving up 5.77 yards per play. With changes to the staff, Norvell is hoping the performance on the field matches the potential on paper.   

A rare matchup of blue blood programs: Even though the two schools have been mainstays in the national college football conversation for the last 40 years, Saturday’s showdown will mark just the sixth meeting in the all-time series between Alabama and Florida State. The rarity of this matchup, and the urgency for both teams to get started with a win given the disappointments of 2024, has packed plenty of extra intrigue into what was already going to be a much-anticipated game on the Week 1 schedule. Alabama leads the all-time series 3-1-1, last defeating Florida State 24-7 in another Week 1 showdown back in 2017.    

Where to watch Alabama vs. Florida State live

Date: Saturday, Aug. 30 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Doak Campbell Stadium — Tallahssee, Florida
TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)

Alabama vs. Florida State prediction, picks

While Florida State may find steadier footing after its offseason changes, it enters this matchup at a disadvantage in several key areas against an Alabama team motivated by last year’s disappointments. The Crimson Tide hold the edge along both lines of scrimmage, at the offensive skill positions and in overall roster strength as the nation’s leader in the 247Sports Team Talent ratings. Ty Simpson could have some shaky moments in his first road start, but over four quarters Alabama looks equipped to cover the number.  Pick: Alabama -13.5

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