Democrats dump money into race to succeed Stefanik

The campaign arm of the Democratic Party believes one of New York State’s Republican strongholds is now at play.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is jumping into the race to succeed star North Country Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik.

New York-21 is one of six solidly red districts the DCCC added to its “Red to Blue” program. The districts include AR-02, which went +16 for Trump in 2024; CO-03, which voted +10 for Trump in 2024; FL-27, which Trump carried +15 in 2024; NV-02, which was +14 for Trump in 2024 and TN-09, which Trump won +21 in 2024.

NY-21, a largely rural stretch of the state spanning from Schoharie County to Canada, has been represented by Stefanik for more than 11 years.

In a statement, DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene praised Democratic candidate Blake Gendebien, writing, “Dairy farmer Blake Gendebien has spent his life serving the North Country as a small business owner and community leader, and he’s exactly the kind of independent, pragmatic voice NY-21 families deserve in Congress.”

Democratic victories in NY-21 are not unheard of — Stefanik’s predecessor was a Democrat. Still, both Stefanik and President Donald Trump carried the district with more than 20 points in 2021.

“Nobody’s going to not be surprised by [the DCCC’s move]. I know that’s a double negative, but NY-21 is the reddest of red districts in New York,” said Jay DeDapper of the Marist Poll. He added, “So how could this possibly be a district that could be won by a Democrat? And I think the answer lies in the candidate who won.”

DeDapper believes the greatest factor at play is Anthony Constantino, the Republican candidate seeking to succeed Stefanik.

Constantino, who founded a lucrative sticker company, has earned a reputation for being combative and eccentric.

A former boxer and amateur rapper, Constantino once told the New York Times he is approaching the race like a “boxing match.”

DelBene slammed him as an “out-of-touch extremist who thinks the rules don’t apply to him.”

Though it is not just Democrats that Constantino has sparred with. At times, he has found himself at odds with other Republicans — including the State Republican Party. But ultimately Constantino, who erected a large “Vote for Trump!” sign atop his sticker business, has the blessing of Trump.

DeDapper says Constantino’s branding as a MAGA candidate may work against him in NY-21, where approximately a quarter of voters are independents.

While Stefanik was first elected to Congress as a moderate, she transformed during her tenure into a fierce ally of Trumps.

“She made the switch. I think we can fairly say based on how well she did in every election after that, by listening to the voters, the Republican voters, especially in her district, and that’s what they wanted,” said DeDapper.

At the same time, DeDapper noted that Democrats are hoping that negative public sentiment around cost of living issues, the war and even Trump will give them an advantage in areas they would not have otherwise looked twice at.

On a press call Sunday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters, “The fact that [HouseDemocrats are not] aggressively on defense because of the strength of our frontline incumbent members is giving us the opportunity to more aggressively go on offense in places that Donald Trump won, in some instances comfortably, in 2024.”

DeDapper also noted that cost is a likely factor in the DCCC investment.

“Television markets in that district are just not that expensive. This isn’t like competing outside of Philly or New York or Boston, where you’ve got to be on the air in these really expensive districts.” He added, “The DCCC is probably looking at this saying, ‘Hey, this is a Hail Mary, but we’ve got extra cash, we’ve got the resources. Let’s give it a roll. Let’s see what happens.’”

Gendebien celebrated the decision, writing on X that “The momentum is on our side, and we’re not slowing down now.”

Constantino’s team did not respond to Spectrum News’ request for comment on the DCCC decision. However, he did hold a press event in Colonie, New York, claiming that he had hired a team of private investigators who uncovered evidence that Gendebien has been illegally dumping trash — including tires, concrete and cattle carcasses, in land and water on his property in St. Lawrence County.

The group, according to Constantino, conducted drone flyovers on Gendebien’s property. Some of the purported footage was played during Constantino’s Colonie event as part of a campaign ad.

Gendebien told Spectrum News in a statement, “Six-dollar diesel is making farming hard enough without this weirdo drone stalking my home and business because he doesn’t know how farming works. Unlike the many felons Anthony pays to hang around his campaign, I’ve already been cleared here.”