New tropical disturbance may develop near Florida. Here’s what to know

ORLANDO, Fla. – As of Thursday morning, the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring a new area of potential tropical development close to home.

The disturbance is expected to form near the northwestern Bahamas or southern Florida by Saturday. While the chance of development remains low for now (10% over the next seven days), it’s the timing and location that is catching the attention for Floridians.

Regardless of development, this nearby system will be the driver behind the increasing rain, gusty winds and flooding potential along Florida’s east coast that’s forecast to ramp up through the weekend.

Central Florida Impacts

Even without becoming a developed named storm, this system is already acting like a tropical troublemaker. Moisture is surging onshore with the heaviest rain falling along the coast. The main storm hazard will be localized flooding, especially for Volusia and Brevard counties.

Winds are picking up, especially near the coast, and rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue to make beach and boating conditions hazardous. That pattern will only continue through the weekend as the disturbance crosses over Florida into the eastern Gulf.

Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic

Farther east, the National Hurricane Center is also keeping an eye on a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa. As it interacts with another disturbance, it will have a low (20%) chance of development over the next week. This system is no immediate threat to land, but it’s worth watching as we head deeper into the season.

Typical for October

While there’s no big tropical concern, it’s important to note that this is exactly the kind of pattern we expect during the final two months of hurricane season. In October and November, tropical systems are more likely to form close to Florida or the Gulf, rather than out in the deep Atlantic.

That makes it even more important to stay alert. These systems can spin up quickly and bring significant impacts even without becoming hurricanes.

For now, the NHC is keeping development chances low, but we’ll be watching this one closely in the days ahead.