Through four weeks, it has become increasingly difficult to figure out what to do with Florida State in my AP top-25 poll.
The answer seems easy on the surface. The Seminoles beat my preseason No. 5 team (Alabama) at home before scoring dominant wins over two overmatched foes. It’s the résumé of a top-10 team if you strictly rank them by that metric.
But the AP poll isn’t a ranking of the 25 best résumés, it’s a pecking order of the 25 best teams. And though it’s obvious to see that Florida State belongs in that top 25, it’s hard to place the Seminoles ahead of some other clubs that have been tested more often and came into the season as a more proven commodity.
Auburn, Notre Dame and Tennessee have played more difficult schedules. Despite all three teams having at least one loss, they were all by razor-thin margins and against clubs that are ahead of Alabama in my rankings.
Auburn deserved to at least go to overtime with Oklahoma on the road this weekend. Notre Dame lost by a combined four points to two top-6 teams in my rankings. Tennessee was a field goal away from beating my No. 3 team.
Tennessee and Auburn are also the owners of good-looking wins over Baylor and Syracuse, respectively. All three teams have proven on multiple occasions that they’re a top-15 caliber team. Florida State, meanwhile, hasn’t been challenged since the Alabama game.
We know more about Auburn, Notre Dame and Tennessee through four weeks than we do about Florida State. The Seminoles were also nowhere near my top-25 heading into the season, as opposed to Auburn, Notre Dame and Tennessee, three teams that were at least close to cracking my preseason top-25 poll and have proven in one way or another that they deserve to move up in the rankings (or, in Notre Dame’s case, not move them down as much).
Next weekend’s matchup against a solid Virginia team will tell us more about Florida State. A dominant road victory over the Cavaliers would be more evidence suggesting that the Seminoles’ win over Alabama wasn’t a fluke.
My AP poll after Week 4
1. Penn State, 2. Miami, 3. Georgia, 4. Ohio State, 5. Oregon, 6. Texas A&M, 7. Oklahoma, 8. LSU, 9. Texas, 10. Indiana, 11. Texas Tech, 12. Tennessee, 13. Notre Dame, 14. Auburn, 15. Michigan, 16. Florida State, 17. Alabama, 18. Ole Miss, 19. Missouri, 20. Vanderbilt, 21. TCU, 22. Georgia Tech, 23. USC, 24. Arizona State, 25. Iowa State
Just missed: Illinois, Nebraska, Washington, Kansas
Ranking Michigan
In my mind, there was no case for Michigan to be ahead of Auburn in this week’s rankings.
Auburn arguably should have beaten Oklahoma on the road, while Michigan was easily defeated by the Sooners in Norman in Week 2. Auburn also has a stronger win than Michigan, taking down Baylor by 14 on the road, while the Wolverines’ victory over Nebraska in Lincoln this weekend was only by three.
But why put Michigan ahead of Florida State? The Seminoles’ win over Alabama is much more impressive than anything Michigan has done, and Florida State, unlike the Wolverines, hasn’t lost a game.
The difference lies in the gap between these teams heading into the season. That margin was quite large, and despite the Alabama win, I still haven’t seen enough from the Seminoles to put them ahead of a Michigan team that’s flawed but just earned a quality win over a good Huskers team on the road.
I have a better feel for Michigan through four weeks. And when in doubt, I’m voting for the team that’s faced the tougher schedule and has come out on the other side of it still looking like a good team.
Other notes
Clearly, Indiana’s 63-10 shellacking over Illinois — my No. 11 team last week — demonstrates that I should’ve had more faith in the Hoosiers this season. Fernando Mendoza might be the best quarterback in the country. I should’ve taken that more into account when evaluating them the last few weeks.
As a former Pac-12 reporter, I can guarantee you that earning a win in Salt Lake City is no easy feat. So credit to Texas Tech for pulling away from Utah on Saturday. The Utes’ passing game was almost nonexistent, but that’s not an easy team to put up 34 points or dominate both lines of scrimmage against.
The money Texas Tech spent this offseason clearly paid off. If Will Hammond remains at quarterback — the offense looked much better once he entered for the injured Behren Morton — then Texas Tech should be considered the favorite to win the Big 12.
