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The Hagerty Market Rating measures the current status of the collector car market in terms of activity or “heat,” directional momentum, and the underlying strength of the market. It is expressed as a closed 0-100 number with a corresponding open-ended index (like the DJIA or NASDAQ Composite). To learn more about how we calculate the Hagerty Market Rating, read here.
There’s been quite a bit of discussion in the news lately about whether we’re in a “K-shaped economy.” This scenario describes a divergence between groups or economic sectors, where some enjoy a dramatic boost while others stagnate or fall behind. We’ll leave that macro conversation to economists, but in the collector car world, some data suggests disparate trends between the top of the market and the rest.
With a 0.17-point bump, the Hagerty Market Rating has seen its third increase in the past year. The current value of 58.45 is well below the Rating’s high points earlier in the 2020s and is the third lowest we’ve seen in the past 15 years. The Market Rating seems to have settled for the time being, staying in the 58-to-60 range for the past nine months. A closer look at the metrics that make up the Market Rating, however, suggest strength at the very top of the collector car market but a different reality for the rest of it.
The Hagerty Market Index, an open-ended stock-market-style version of the Market Rating, decreased for the second consecutive month. The current value of 171.36 is the lowest the Index has been in over four years and is a 16.8% drop from its high in December 2022.
Even after an impressive showing from the top end of the market at the Florida and Arizona auctions last month, the Hagerty Market Rating’s auction-specific metrics failed to increase. While total sales for the January auctions increased from $446M in 2025 to $678M in 2026, the majority of this growth was due to a handful of eight-figure sales. About 500 fewer vehicles were offered at the January auctions this year. Combined with a 3% drop in sell-through rate, this resulted in the Market Rating’s metric for Count of Cars Sold decreasing for the first time in 14 months. With higher total sales on fewer cars sold, the average sale price increased 71% compared to 2025. However, the Median Sale Price metric, which lowers the impact of outliers, failed to outpace inflation again this month, setting a new record low. A more detailed write-up on the January auctions can be found here.
After watching the January auctions, optimism among our industry experts rose to its highest point in two years, but still remains in the “flat market” territory. They are seeing a divergence in the market. Auction analyst and industry expert, Rick Carey sums it up well: “All indications are that we’re well into a two-tier market with what we consider mainstream collector cars being dramatically overshadowed by a nearly feverish market for late model supercars. The two tiers became apparent six months or so ago at Monterey and have been regularly reinforced since we moved into 2026 with auctions at Kissimmee, Scottsdale, and now Paris. We’ve seen this kind of passion-fueled market run-up before, but never so heavily concentrated in over-the-top prices for cars so new they’re still under factory warranty.”
Our macro-economic indicators are currently at their lowest point since September 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Perhaps wealthy buyers are investing in physical assets while the greater economy is clouded with uncertainty.
This K-shaped market is also apparent in how our members change the insured values on their vehicles. For vehicles valued under $250,000, the ratio of insured value increases vs. decreases has dropped 16 of the past 18 months to its lowest point since summer 2021. For more expensive vehicles, this ratio is much healthier, increasing seven times in the past year alone.
The top end of the market will be tested again at the Amelia Island and Miami auctions this month. Will modern hypercars continue to see rabid bidding while more pedestrian collector cars are met with mild enthusiasm? We will have detailed recaps of these sales in the coming weeks.
