Israel and Iran launch missiles at each other as ceasefire appears on the brink

The tenuous ceasefire in the Middle East seemed to be holding on by a thread on Sunday as Israel and Iran exchanged missile fire for the first time since an agreement to end hostilities was reached in April.

Meanwhile, Israel said early Monday that it detected a missile launched from Yemen targeting the country, according to the Associated Press. Yemen is home to the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. And Saudi Arabia sounded air warning sirens in an area close to an air base housing U.S. forces, the AP also reported, though that country said shortly afterwards that the danger had passed.

The escalation amounted to the most significant exchange of fire since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran was put on pause in April. The renewed fighting also threatened to undermine President Donald Trump’s negotiations with Iran as the U.S. president appears to be seeking a way out of a war that is unpopular with Americans and has sent gas prices soaring.

The fighting began Sunday when Israel launched airstrikes on Lebanon, which has been a sore point in the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran as Israel continues to pursue that conflict. Tehran retaliated by firing missiles at Israel, the first missiles launched at Israel in two months as the war reached its 100th day.

Earlier Monday, Israel responded by launching airstrikes targeting central and western Iran. Officials did not give details on exactly what had been struck.

“A short while ago, the Israeli Air Force struck military targets belonging to the Iranian terror regime in western and central Iran,” said the Israeli military.

The White House did not respond to messages about the Israel-launched strikes or whether they were done in coordination with the U.S. However, Trump, according to Axios, said he was going to call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and “tell him not to strike back.”

If the two talked, Netanyahu apparently did not listen.

And Trump, in a series of interviews with the media on Sunday before the Israeli strikes on Iran, gave conflicting signals about whether peace negotiations were in trouble.

Fox News’ Trey Yingst said Trump told the news outlet regarding the Iranian missiles launched Sunday, “It’s certainly not going to help negotiations,” and he urged Iran to reach a deal.

But an Iranian official linked to the talks between the U.S. and Iran said that “a deal with President Trump is no longer feasible at this stage”

The official blamed Trump for the current situation, and the escalation of hostilities in Lebanon.

Before the Israeli attacks, Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday evening that Netanyahu “won’t have any choice” but to accept the deal the U.S. negotiates with Iran.

“I call the shots. I call all the shots. He [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots,” he said, adding the Iranian strikes on Israel were “not going to have any impact on the deal.”

“The deal may make it on its own merit, or not, but this will not have any effect on it,” Trump explained.

However, if a deal fails, Trump told the Financial Times the U.S. would consider further military action and would continue the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.

“Number one, it would mean that possibly we would go in and take care of the rest of the place that we didn’t take care of militarily,” he said. “Or it would just mean that we would keep the blockade on Iran because the blockade has been probably more powerful than any attack that was ever made on that country.”

But a White House official granted anonymity to speak candidly told MS NOW Trump has underestimated the willingness of Iran to resume conflict.

“The recent negotiations with Iran in many ways have exposed a fundamental miscalculation” by the president and the White House, the official said, adding that Iran’s “erratic behavior” has heightened the situation with no imminent off ramp.

Earlier Sunday, the Israeli military, which launched the war against Iran jointly with the U.S. on Feb. 28, said sirens were sounded in several areas of the country and Iran confirmed it launched the missiles. “Tonight’s operation was solely intended as a warning. Should these acts of aggression continue, future responses will be broader in scope and will encompass all American and Israeli targets throughout the region,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said in a statement posted on Telegram.

In addition to Sunday’s fresh strikes, military clashes continued across the region and talks between the two sides have stalled, four Middle East officials and diplomats told MS NOW.

‘I think we’re very close’

Until Sunday, Trump had continued to say a deal is close. “I think we’re very close. We have a couple of points,” he told NBC News in an interview that aired Sunday. “They don’t even seem like big points.”

Over the weekend, U.S. commandos seized an Iranian oil tanker and shot down multiple Iranian drones. Clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in Lebanon also intensified.

Four Middle East officials and diplomats told MS NOW that significant disagreements remain. All of them spoke on condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the talks.

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A senior official in the region told MS NOW on Friday that three issues remain unresolved: The sequencing of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, American demands regarding Iran’s nuclear program and Iranian demands to receive relief funds up front as part of the agreement.

A senior Middle East diplomat also said Friday that negotiations have regressed.

“There are no meaningful negotiations taking place between the two countries as they stand,” the diplomat told MS NOW.

Trump administration officials say talks are progressing and dismissed the statements from officials in the region. 

“This is grossly inaccurate, as MS NOW always is when they rely on mysterious ‘Middle Eastern diplomats’ who have no idea what they are talking about,” said Anna Kelly, a White House spokesperson.

A Pakistani foreign ministry source with knowledge of the talks expressed optimism as well. They told MS NOW that this weekend’s visit of Pakistan’s interior minister to Iran was “extremely positive” and “Iran showed signs of progress towards agreeing on a framework.” 

Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at Sciences Po in Paris and an associate at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, told MS NOW that the continued military clashes between the two sides are not aiding negotiations.

“The persistent strikes between the U.S. and Iran across the region [are] hardly helping the situation,” she said. “If anything, it’s making it harder to separate the negotiations from a pending resumption of war.”

In Trump’s interview with NBC News, he threatened to bomb Iran’s enriched uranium if Tehran will not hand it over to the U.S. Experts have warned that bombing enriched uranium sends small radioactive particles into the air. The particles do not spread far but anyone entering the nearby area faces health risks. 

An expert told the BBC last week, “That’s because the uranium particles could become lodged in the cells, inside either your lungs or your stomach, and slowly, radioactively decay, and that will cause damage.”

Trump also said U.S. forces would seize Iran’s enriched uranium if Tehran declined to hand it over. U.S. and Iranian officials are currently negotiating a “memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the current fraying ceasefire.” A second 60-day round of negotiations would focus on Iran’s nuclear program.

Military experts have warned that a U.S. commando raid to seize the uranium by force could last for days and potentially require American forces to build a landing strip. U.S. forces could be exposed to attacks from Iranian forces and could suffer high casualties.

Trump told NBC News that Iran has agreed to not seek a nuclear weapon, but he wanted an additional provision added to the agreement to ensure Iran cannot purchase one.

Trump said the Iranians pushed back “a little bit” on his demand. “And then they didn’t.”

Experts have warned that Iranian leaders have publicly promised for years to not obtain a nuclear weapon. They say such a pledge from Iranian officials cannot be trusted.

Iranian officials have continued to demand the return of up to $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets held overseas as part of the memorandum of understanding. Trump told NBC News he opposed any release of frozen Iranian funds until after the second round of negotiations had been completed.

Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst at the Eurasia Group, told MS NOW that he was not surprised that two sides are digging in at this point in the negotiations. But he thinks a deal remains possible.

 “I think what that means is after a week of fairly rapid progress, movements have now slowed, as both sides dig into their respective positions,” Brew said. “My personal feeling is that this deadlock won’t last forever, there’s still a mutual incentive to reach a deal and that will keep negotiations moving.”

Jake Traylor contributed to this report.

David Rohde

David Rohde is the senior national security reporter for MS NOW and a two-time winner of the Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting. Previously he was the senior executive editor for national security and law for NBC News.

Ayman Mohyeldin

Ayman Mohyeldin is a co-host of “The Weekend: Primetime,” which airs on Saturdays and Sundays from 6 to 9 p.m. ET on MS NOW.

Inzamam Rashid

Inzamam Rashid is a MS NOW contributor and Monocle’s Gulf Correspondent based in Dubai. He has previously reported for Sky News and the BBC

Ian Sherwood

Ian Sherwood is the director of international newsgathering for MS NOW, a former executive editor for NBC News and a former deputy Washington bureau chief for the BBC.