AFBF president urges Trump to reconsider beef import plan

American Farm Bureau President (AFBF) Zippy Duvall sent a letter to President Donald J. Trump on Wednesday, expressing concerns about a plan to allow up to 300,000 metric tons of beef to be imported over a 90-day period.

In an Aug. 21 announcement on Truth Social, Trump said he has a commitment that the imported beef will be sold at 25% below current market prices and will not be subject to out-of-quota tariffs.

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While the move is an attempt to ease record-high ground beef prices, Duvall said the timing could work against beef producers who are deciding whether to expand their herds. In his letter to Trump, Duvall said the import plan has created “apprehension and chaos” in the cattle market, citing the fact that 70% of the spring-born calves are sold during the 90-day window that overlaps with the plan to increase beef imports.

“This weakens cattle prices and erodes the confidence U.S. ranchers need to make the long-term investments required to rebuild our cattle herd,” Duvall wrote.

Pointing to volatility in the cattle market caused by regulatory pressures, disease threats, and trade barriers — among other factors — Duvall said importing the equivalent to more than 660 million pounds of foreign beef into the U.S. will undermine America’s farmers.

“Mr. President, a key tenant of your reelection campaign was affordability, including the costs of essentials like groceries and gas. Bringing down the price of cattle will not bring the price of beef down for American families,” Duvall wrote.

“Instead, it will discourage American farmers and ranchers from making long term investments in herd rebuilding, extending the cycle of tight cattle supplies, high production costs and elevated beef prices for consumers.”

Economic consequences loom

AFBF Vice President of Public Policy and Economic Analysis John Newton analyzed the potential consequences of increased imports in a new Farm Bureau Intel.

As Newton noted, beef imports into the U.S. are already record high and during the very window of time that many farmers will be selling their cattle.

One of the primary reasons beef, and in particular ground beef prices, reached a record high in 2026 is the historically low beef cow inventory.

According to USDA’s July Cattle Inventory report, the number of beef cows as of July 1 was 28.5 million head, the lowest level since the series first began in 1971. The calf crop also remains historically low at 32.5 million head but was up 3% compared to prior year levels – signaling heifer retention and breeding herd rebuilding has begun across the U.S.

“Efforts to rebuild the U.S. cattle herd are fragile at best,” Newton wrote.

“Despite the historically low cattle herd, due to a number of packing plant closures across the U.S., continued efforts to increase beef imports, and the phased reopening of the border with Mexico, cash cattle prices have fallen 14%, or nearly $40 per hundredweight, in recent months.”

The reason for the historically small beef cow herd is multifaceted, according to Newton, who cited drought conditions that forced cattle producers to liquidate cattle or put cattle on feed due to lack of homegrown forage.

He also noted data from USDA that shows input costs for cow-calf producers reached a record high of $1,762 per head in 2025, with nearly every line item for cow-calf operators more expensive today than ever before.

Production costs are up more than $400 per head, or nearly 30%, since 2020.

Newton said recent years have been among some of the best economic years for cow-calf producers, allowing them to make reinvestments in their farms. However, he warned that the positive returns are above variable costs only.

When considering fixed costs — such as land, taxes and machinery — Newton said returns above the total cost of production for cow-calf operations have been negative for 30 consecutive years.

“Finally seeing the returns needed to justify reinvesting in their herds, cow-calf producers are beginning to hold on to their heifers and starting to rebuild,” Newton concluded.

“A surge of imports coinciding with the fall calf-selling season and the drop in cattle prices that would come with those imports would jeopardize that. The result could be a policy that offers short-term relief at the grocery store while working against the longer-term goal of a larger, more resilient American cattle herd.”

Click here to read the full Farm Bureau Intel report.