The 2028 presidential outlook is looking bleak for Democrats, with the frontrunners in New Hampshire a far-left socialist and a 2020 retread who would probably ensure Republicans keep the White House.
The University of New Hampshire poll of 648 primary voters shows there is an appetite among Democrats for a new candidate to emerge, possibly a dynamic liberal upstart like Boston Mayor Michelle Wu?
With her geographic advantage in New Hampshire, Wu has the potential to wipe the field in 2028 if she were to decide to take the plunge. She has the anti-Trump credentials and the executive experience; so it’s really not a far-fetched idea, and one her advisers have probably looked at.
The current weak Democratic field is being led by U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg, who finished with 22% and 21%, respectively, in the new University of New Hampshire survey. National polls recently show the race wide open, with Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez, Georgia Sen. John Osoff, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom battling for first place.
In New Hampshire, Republicans appear headed for a tight battle between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who topped the UNH poll of 573 primary voters. National polls also show the race close between Vance and Rubio.
None of the other potential candidates are wowing primary voters, including 2024 White House loser Kamala Harris, who got only an embarrassing 5% in the UNH poll.
Rounding out the Democratic contenders are Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, with 9%; former California Gov. Gavin Newsom, with 8%; and socialist Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, with just 6% in the UNH poll.
Sanders won the 2020 New Hampshire primary, but Democratic voters clearly want nothing to do with him again.
Cortez, just age 36, shows she has some appeal to win over far-left voters, but her support comes almost all from self-described socialists and progressives. Her candidacy could be a disaster if the socialist congresswoman wins the nomination, where independents usually tilt the race. Her youth and inexperience also could doom her chances.
Buttigieg would face similar challenges to win over more moderate voters. He won the Iowa Democratic caucus and finished second in New Hampshire in 2020 but was forced to end his presidential campaign after finishing a dismal fourth in South Carolina.
He also could be hurt by his close association with former President Joe Biden, who picked him to head Department of Transportation.
Harris is making noises about running again, but these poll results should make her think twice. Voters in New Hampshire are not clamoring for a comeback.
New Hampshire voters do not have the “first in the nation” clout they used to own in previous presidential races. Democrats in 2024 bumped them down to third in the order of states holding primaries, behind South Carolina and Nevada, so the Granite State held an unsanctioned primary in January.
The party had picked South Carolina to lead off the presidential primary season, but under state law, New Hampshire must be first.
Republicans could still keep New Hampshire first, though, and the UNH poll shows Vance and Rubio in a close fight for first place.
But Vance’s support has plummeted from 53% in February to 36% now, indicating he could be hurt by his association with President Donald Trump, whose approval ratings nationally have dropped.
Rubio’s support has skyrocketed in the last few months from just 7% in February to 26% today, showing he has the greatest potential for growth in the next two years.
Vance draws most of his support from conservatives and Trump supporters, but Rubio is doing better among moderate voters, the poll shows.
