Jon Ossoff’s Chances of Losing to Republican Mike Collins in Georgia—Poll

Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff holds a 7-point lead over Republican Representative Mike Collins in the latest poll of the Georgia Senate race, a key race in a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024, which Democrats must defend if they hope to take control of the Senate in the 2026 midterms.

The Peach State has become firmly purple in recent years, backing Trump in 2016 and 2024 while backing President Joe Biden in 2020. Ossoff has proven to be a strong Democrat in the state and has been floated as a potential presidential contender as soon as 2028.

The new InsiderAdvantage poll released on Tuesday found 50 percent of Georgia voters surveyed said they would back Ossoff in November, while 43 percent said they plan to vote for Collins, a sitting representative from Georgia’s 10th District. Seven percent of respondents said they were undecided about how they would vote in the general election.

The poll surveyed 800 likely voters from August 16 to August 17 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points. It was first reported by James Magazine, a statewide political publication in Georgia.

An Ossoff spokesperson expressed confidence in the senator’s chances of winning reelection in November in a statement to Newsweek on Wednesday.

“Georgia is a battleground state and Senator Ossoff is already facing millions of dollars of Republican spending against him. The Ossoff campaign will continue to build unstoppable momentum and work to earn every vote across the state of Georgia,” the statement reads.

Collins’ Campaign Manager Josh Siegel told Newsweek in a statement that Collins has “cut the gap nearly in half in just six weeks with a fraction of the spending.”

“Jon Ossoff can spend all the money in the world trying to reinvent himself, but you can’t buy a new voting record. Georgians are starting to get a good look at the one he has, and they don’t like what they see,” Siegel wrote.

The Sabato Crystal Ball rates the race as “Likely Democrat” while both the Cook Political Report and the Fox News Senate Forecast rate the race as “Lean Democrat.”

Newsweek reached out to the Ossoff and Collins campaigns for comment via email.

What Other Polls Show

Ossoff, who first entered office in 2021, has built up a lead over Collins in the battleground state, but Republicans still view the race as one of their top flip opportunities in the midterms, along with Michigan, another state that was won by Trump in 2016 and 2024.

The latest poll from AARP found Ossoff up 9 points over Collins, 52 percent to 43 percent. It was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research among 1,060 likely voters from July 13 to July 16, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A recent Wick survey showed Ossoff up 4 points with 46.7 percent to Collins’ 42.9 percent. It surveyed 1,175 likely voters from June 27 to June 30, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

A poll for Fox News put Ossoff’s support at 56 percent compared to Collins’ 43 percent—a whopping 13-point margin. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research among 1,002 registered voters from June 23 to June 27.

Ossoff Leads in Prediction Markets

Ossoff’s chances of winning have expanded over the past month in prediction markets. On Wednesday, he had a 91.3 percent chance of winning, up from 87 percent chance one month earlier, on Kalshi. On Polymarket, his chances of beating Collins stood at 94 percent, up from 86 percent one month earlier.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.

Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.

Governor Race Is Competitive, New Poll Finds

The new poll from InsiderAdvantage also found that the Georgia governor race between former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, and businessman Rick Jackson, a Republican, remains competitive. Each candidate received 46 percent support in that poll, with 8 percent remaining undecided, according to the poll.

Polls have generally shown that the governor race is much tighter than the Senate race.

Outgoing Republican Governor Brian Kemp won two terms and a Democrat has not taken the governor’s mansion since 1998. Kemp opted to stay out of the Senate race.

The AARP poll found Bottoms with a 2-point lead over Jackson, 48 percent to 46 percent, while the Wick poll showed the race nearly tied, with Republican leading by a half point, 43.2 percent to 42.7 percent. The Fox News poll showed Bottoms leading by 5 points, 52 percent to 47 percent.

Jon Ossoff, Donald Trump Dispute Explained

The polling comes as Ossoff made headlines this week after taking aim at Trump’s relationship with his aide Natalie Harp. The Senator said the president preferred to “travel with Natalie” rather than do his job as he made remarks about the war in Iran and the record-setting deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.

“While the sailors on the Lincoln fight his war, while he fruitlessly drains our munitions and oil reserves, the president sleeps through his meetings,” Ossoff said. “He golfs and trades stocks. See, he doesn’t want to do the job. He wants to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the emir of Qatar.”

Ossoff said during an interview with MS Now’s Jen Psaki on Monday that he has “heard this particular aide referred to as [Trump’s] security blanket.”

Harp is the president’s executive assistant and was one of three aides who joined him in his recent plane swap, which was prompted by a potential threat of an Iranian missile attack. White House deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino and Walt Nauta, the director of Oval Office operations, also joined the president.

On Monday, Steven Cheung, the White House director of communications, reposted a clip of Ossoff’s remarks on X, and wrote, “Jon Jackoff has to be the biggest cuck loser in politics. Instead of denigrating hard working people serving their country, Jon should look deep into his soul and ask himself why he’s a miserable person who hates this country. It’s because he’s a radical, extremist Dumocrat.”

Jon Ossoff’s 2028 Chances

Ossoff is frequently named as a potential candidate in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, with some in the party believing his popularity in a swing state like Georgia could make him a strong candidate against a Republican candidate nationwide. But the senator has repeatedly dismissed speculation about a potential presidential run.

“I have zero interest in running for president in 2028, and frankly zero interest in the 2028 fantasy football right now,” he told Psaki on Monday.

But some Democratic voters are still saying they would vote for him in a primary if he changes his mind.

Early polls can test name recognition and be an important signal for voters and donors alike about a candidate’s viability. Typically, most candidates wait until after the midterms to announce a White House run and primary season is likely to begin in early 2027.

The latest poll from Focaldata and the Financial Times showed 2024 nominee and former Vice President Kamala Harris leading the 2028 Democratic field with 30 percent of the vote, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 14 percent, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 10 percent and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 8 percent.

Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro followed at 6 percent, while Ossoff and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly each received 5 percent in the poll, which surveyed 2,152 adults August 7 to August 11.

Ossoff is also a leading contender in prediction markets, having a 16 percent chance of winning the nomination on Kalshi, only behind Ocasio-Cortez. On Polymarket, he has a 14 percent chance behind Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez.

Georgia Is Must-Win for Democrats

Democrats likely have to retain their seat in Georgia if they want to flip the Senate.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats must defend all their seats and flip four others to take control of the upper chamber.

Democrats faced a difficult map, defending seats in two states Trump won in 2024—Georgia and Michigan. Polling in Michigan has shown a tight race between progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former Representative Mike Rogers after they recently won their primaries.

Maine and North Carolina might be Democrats’ top flip opportunities.

In Maine, which Harris won by about 7 points, longtime GOP Senator Susan Collins is up for reelection. She faces Democrat Troy Jackson, the former Maine Senate president. Jackson took over the campaign after scandal-plagued Graham Platner exited the race following a primary victory. Collins has shown a remarkable ability to win elections in Maine as she seeks her sixth term.

In North Carolina, which Trump won by about 3 points, former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has built a polling lead against Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring.

The challenge for Democrats is winning those two states and finding two more victories in states that Trump won in 2024.

Democrats view Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas as being potentially competitive, and polls show close races in those states.