This is my weekly roundup of new political data published over the last seven days.
Dear readers,
This week, a new Fox News poll showed Democrats hitting the highest percent support on the generic ballot in the history of the survey, winning 52% of the vote vs 46% for the Republicans. This puts them firmly in “wave” territory for November: Per Fox, “The current 52% Democratic support is the highest recorded for either party; the previous high was 50% for the Democrats in October 2017.”
(A note on the Fox poll: despite the network’s reputation, the survey is conducted by a bipartisan duo — Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).)
Plus: The survey also reveals how the issue landscape is changing ahead of the midterms. And a new YouGov survey finds Trump’s approval among independents has cratered to a second-term low.
On deck this week: Tuesday’s Deep Dive will look at what voters like and dislike about the Democratic and Republican parties, in their own words, and Friday’s Chart of the Week will respond to the week’s news.
Let’s dig into the numbers.
Aside from the large lead for the Democrats (+6 is above average), the Fox News Poll found some striking shifts in issue ownership. Fox finds the Democrats lead on affordability (+14), helping the middle class (+14), and healthcare (+21), while Republicans hold advantages on border security (+15), national security (+12), and immigration (+5) — but their previous edges on taxes, foreign policy, and the deficit have evaporated. Those issues are now essentially tied.
Compared to 2023, the last time Fox asked these questions before Trump became president, support for the GOP is down on immigration by 5 points (10 points since 2022), national security by 8, government spending by 11, foreign policy by 12, taxes by 12, and affordability/prices by 26:
Some commentary from me: A lot of people have noted that Republicans still retain an advantage on immigration despite the negative backlash to Immigration and Customs Enforcement this last month. I think this interpretation is a little too reductive for two reasons. First, the question is a retrospective question, baking in a lot of prior beliefs about which party has typically handled the issue better. And the trend is moving in Democrats’ direction, suggesting recalibration for recent events.
But second, electorally speaking, what has been a better predictor of election outcomes historically is the percent of voters who say they think the Democratic/Republican party is best at handling each individual’s single most important issue. Per Gallup below, whichever party has led on this question in the past 20 years has won the subsequent presidential election. The results also predict midterms reasonably well if you apply a slight penalty for the party in control of the White House.
In my polling, Democrats currently lead on this question 46 to 38%.
Democrats do have some branding work to do, and their plan on immigration is not as clear as Trump’s — voters probably take that into account when responding to each party’s imagined position. I would suggest a second look at where this question is in a few months.
Meanwhile, Trump’s standing with independents continues to deteriorate. The Economist/YouGov poll conducted Jan. 23-26 found Trump at -18 net approval overall but -40 among independents. That’s a new record low across both his first and second terms.
The generic ballot this far out isn’t predictive of the final result — as I wrote earlier this month, the out-party typically gains about 5 points between now and November. But it does tell us where the race starts. And right now, Democrats are starting from their strongest position in years.
In case you missed it, here’s Sunday night’s emergency post about the special election in Texas (with original precinct-level vote analysis):
Friday’s Chart of the Week post looked at the gap between Trump’s electoral success and the popularity of his actual policies:
On Tuesday, I wrote about how the ICE shootings in Minneapolis are reshaping public opinion on immigration enforcement:
And last Sunday’s roundup covered the collapse in support for ICE and Trump’s 2024 coalition:
If you’re a frequent reader of Strength In Numbers, I’m confident you will get a lot of value out of a paid subscription. Paying members get access to Tuesday’s premium Deep Dives, the full archive, and the knowledge that they’re supporting independent, data-driven political journalism.
The Strength In Numbers polling averages have moved to fiftyplusone.news.
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Trump’s net job approval is -18, holding near the worst marks of his second term
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The generic ballot is D+4.5, up from R+5 at this point last year
And that’s it for this week! Thanks for reading. Strength In Numbers will be back in your inbox Tuesday!
Got more for next week? Email your links or add to the comments below!
Elliott
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