Former Belichick aide brings insight to Patriots’ No. 31 pick

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — Quick-hit thoughts and notes around the New England Patriots and NFL:

1. Dynamics of 31: Life at the top of the AFC means the Patriots are near the bottom of the upcoming NFL draft (April 23-25; ESPN, ABC, ESPN App), a stark difference from last year when they picked No. 4 and essentially knew LSU offensive tackle Will Campbell would be their choice before it even began.

They own pick 31 this year, and when it comes to the dynamics of that slot, longtime Patriots director of football research Ernie Adams speaks from a rare perspective.

Adams was Bill Belichick’s right-hand man in New England for 21 years. The team appeared in nine Super Bowls over that span, which placed it in the 31st or 32nd slot the following year. And if it wasn’t those picks, the assigned selection often landed in the 20s.

For those wondering what discussions might currently be like among the Patriots regime of Eliot Wolf, Mike Vrabel, Ryan Cowden, John Streicher & Co., Adams highlights uncertainty and flexibility.

“You have absolutely no way of knowing for sure who’s going to be there when you pick. It’s impossible. You’re a couple picks away, but it’s like drafting at the top of the second round so you just have to be ready for whatever might happen,” he relayed in an interview with ESPN.

“There are going to be 30 players taken ahead of you. Half of the players, everybody in the world knows they’re going to be taken. But there will be surprises after that. Somebody may take a player at 23, and you say, ‘Oh my, what happened there?'”

Adams’ favorite selection came in 2005 when the team stayed in its No. 32 slot and tabbed Fresno State offensive lineman Logan Mankins.

“He was clear and away the best player on our board. We knew he would come in and play for us,” he recalled.

That comes back to the foundation of what Adams believes gives a team the best chance to hit on a late first-round pick — grade every player honestly and don’t reach for need.

“Whoever you take there is going to be on your team, you’re married to it unless it’s a disaster. So we’re trying to answer the question, ‘Who has the best chance to help us win football games?’ Which comes down to best player there,” he said.

“You might say, ‘We need a linebacker in the worst way’ and there’s an OK linebacker but a big-time offensive lineman. Then when you draft him, what you have is an average linebacker and you just passed up a really good player. Two years from now, nobody is going to think, ‘Did they fill a need?’ They’ll say, ‘Wow, they got a really good player.'”

Mankins went on to play nine seasons in New England and is a four-time finalist for the team’s Hall of Fame.

There were other times the Patriots didn’t have as much success picking late in the first round.

Asked some lessons learned in those situations, Adams said: “Don’t fall in love with players. Part of this is you’re judging human beings and ‘How is this young man in college going to react to getting a big contract?’ It all comes down to being totally objective when you grade the player: ‘This is the player’s value in the National Football League.’ You have to get that right. The worst thing you can do is BS yourself because you might need something.”

Then there’s understanding the nuance of trades and being ready if an unexpected opportunity presents itself.

In 2002, for example, the Patriots traded from 32 to 21 to select Colorado tight end Daniel Graham. They gave up late third- and seventh-round draft picks to do so. That wasn’t a hefty price to pay, which reflects that Washington was motivated to move the pick versus the Patriots pressing the issue.

“If there’s a player I really want and I call you and initiate the conversation, I’m going to be paying full retail because you’re in no rush to give the pick away to me, versus if there’s nobody there you want and you’re looking for extra picks and you call me,” he said.

“So you can either initiate the trade or [it comes to you]. You better know which side of it you’re on because it will affect the price you have to pay. This was one place where having some Wall Street experience as a trader [helped us with] the dynamic of what’s going on.”

2. Faulk prediction: ESPN Analytics’ NFL Draft Day Predictor, which uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to estimate the chance each player is taken at each pick number, currently has Auburn edge Keldric Faulk as the Patriots’ most likely selection at 31.

That’s based on the 57% chance the 6-foot-5, 276-pound Faulk is available. Faulk’s production dipped last season, as he totaled 29 tackles and two sacks after having 45 tackles and seven sacks in 2024.

3. Visit deadline: Wednesday marks the final day teams can host draft prospects at their facility (up to 30 allowed), and the Patriots are scheduled to have Florida edge George Gumbs Jr. in town before the deadline, according to sources.

Gumbs (6-4, 245) has willed his way from walk-on wide receiver to potential mid-round draft pick after switching to defense in 2023 at Northern Illinois. His 41-inch vertical jump at the combine tied for second all-time among edge players, behind Nolan Smith Jr. (41.5).

4. Wright stuff: Auburn guard Jeremiah Wright, a middle-round projection who visited with the Patriots on Friday, has been working out with Eugene Chung leading up to the draft.

Chung was a first-round pick of the Patriots in 1992, an offensive tackle out of Virginia Tech, who went on to coach in the NFL with the Chiefs and Eagles. Wright credits Chung with helping him prepare for the pros as he’s dropped from 350 pounds to 330. The two have become close and now have a Patriots link to share between them.

5. Local flavor: Central Connecticut State quarterback Brady Olson grew up in Bellingham, Massachusetts, which is about 15 miles from Gillette Stadium, so attending the Patriots’ local pro day last Tuesday hit home with him in multiple ways. He’s named after Tom Brady, after all.

“Being a Patriots fan growing up, there’s so many memories to choose from,” said Olson, who threw for 5,317 yards and 42 touchdowns in two starting seasons in becoming the first quarterback in CCSU history to lead the team to consecutive Northeast Conference titles and FCS playoff appearances. “Having so many Super Bowls, and being able to have all your family together for parties at the house, those are special moments.”

Now Olson can relay to family members what it’s like inside Patriots headquarters. He arrived around 8 a.m. last Tuesday, and the on-field workout inside the WIN Waste Innovations Field House lasted about an hour before most prospects departed around 11:30 a.m. He was coached by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and felt it went well.

“His knowledge and information about the game is second to none,” Olson said of McDaniels. “He has a great information bank when it comes to learning football and he gave me a couple really good tips on footwork and timing with receivers in that short amount of time that I’ll carry with me the rest of my life.”

6. Safety net: Toledo safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren told Sirius XM NFL Radio that his first predraft visit was to the Patriots in March, followed by the Browns.

His nine career forced fumbles surely landed him on the radar of Vrabel and his staff, who list ball disruption as the No. 2 item of their desired team identity. In a March 24 mock draft, ESPN draft analyst Field Yates noted, “In this year’s deep safety class, McNeil-Warren has a strong shot to be the third one off the board in the first round.”

7. QB3 experience: Vrabel said the Patriots hope to draft a quarterback or sign one as an undrafted free agent to develop behind Drake Maye and Tommy DeVito.

UConn’s Joe Fagnano and Kansas’ Jalon Daniels are among those the staff has spent one-on-one time with recently. One common thread between them is an abundance of college experience. Fagnano is 25 after spending four seasons at Maine and three at UConn, and the 23-year-old Daniels spent six seasons with the Jayhawks.

8. Draft buzz: Wolf will hold the team’s predraft news conference Monday (2 p.m. ET), which be the first official media event at the team’s new facility — the New Balance Athletic Center. Vrabel — who has been in the news this week, as the Athletic is reinvestigating the coverage of NFL reporter Dianna Russini and the nature of her relationship with him, sources familiar with the matter told ESPN — isn’t expected to address reporters until the draft.

The team has hosted prospects at the new facility in recent weeks, which includes Georgia tight end Oscar Delp, among others, as the team’s potential draft plans come into focus.

For those interested in following along, I am keeping track of all the Patriots’ draft buzz leading up to April 23 in a special edition notebook here.

9. They said it: “There is zero question that all three belong in the New England Patriots Hall of Fame. I know some people say, ‘Why not put all three in?’ By having one player a year, you guarantee there is going to be an interesting conversation the next year. If you put everyone in at the same time … you don’t want to be in a situation the next year where you’re putting in OK players and not Hall of Famers.” — Ernie Adams, on 2026 finalists Rob Gronkowski, Logan Mankins and Adam Vinatieri and the overall process as fan voting is underway

10. Did you know: The Patriots enter the draft with 11 selections, which ties with the Ravens, Dolphins and Jaguars for second most in the NFL, behind only the Steelers (12).