Abstract
In recent years, detection of local dengue cases in Florida have increased in both frequency and geographical extent. From 2022 to 2024, consecutive outbreaks in Miami-Dade County were mainly caused by a single lineage of dengue virus (DENV) serotype 3, prompting questions about changing epidemiology and a transition towards endemicity. In this study, we used mathematical modeling and genomic epidemiology to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of local dengue cases in Florida. We found that annual clusters and outbreaks were caused by frequent short-lived DENV introductions, primarily from the Caribbean, and did not find evidence for local trans-seasonal DENV lineage persistence. Further, we show that the climate-driven increases in local suitability for Aedes aegypti transmission and travel-associated cases were the greatest risk factors for outbreaks in Miami-Dade and the geographic expansion of dengue in Florida. Overall, while we do not yet find evidence for endemicity, we demonstrate how climatic trends are enhancing the local public health risk caused by dengue in Florida.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This publication was made possible by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) under Award Number DP2AI176740 (NDG), pilot funds from the Yale Planetary Sciences via the Three Cairns Climate Impact Innovation Fund and the Office of the Provost AI Initiatives (NDG), the National Institute of General Medical Sciences R21GM142011 (SFM), the National Science Scholarship from the Agency for Science, Technology, and Research (A*STAR) (YTC), Singapore. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official position of the NIH, FDOH, or A*STAR.
Author Declarations
I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:
The Institutional Review Boards (IRB) from the FDOH, Florida Gulf Coast University, and the Yale University Human Research Protection Program determined that pathogen genomic sequencing of de-identified remnant diagnostic samples as conducted in this study is not research involving human subjects (Yale IRB Protocol ID: 2000033281).
I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.
Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.
Yes
Data Availability
GenBank accession numbers for all sequences that we generated in this study are available in Table S2. Covariates we used for modelling the annual occurrence and monthly incidence of local DENV cases are summarized in Table S5.
