Back-to-back redistricting victories in court have Republicans gaining confidence in their midterm chances. But President Donald Trump’s lagging approval ratings and other political indicators continue to threaten the GOP’s grip on Congress six months out from the midterm elections.
Subscribe to read this story ad-free
Get unlimited access to ad-free articles and exclusive content.
The Virginia Supreme Court’s Friday decision blocking a gerrymandered map, which could have netted Democrats up to four House seats, comes less than two weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court limited the use of race in redistricting, which has Republican-led states moving to draw out majority-Black, Democratic-held districts in the South in the coming weeks.
But as one structural piece of the midterms gets better for Republicans, the overall national mood remains sour for the party. Poll after poll shows Trump’s approval below 40% and Americans deeply frustrated with his handling of the economy. A handful of reputable polls shows Democrats erasing the GOP’s long-held edge on the economy.
Republican and Democratic strategists who spoke with NBC News, granted anonymity to share their candid thoughts about these developments, may disagree on which side has the edge. But they agreed on an important point: Neither side won or lost the House in May, even with those court decisions altering the battlefield.
Carrie Dann, the managing editor of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, told NBC News that despite the “blow” from the court decisions, she believes Democrats are still “favored” to win back the House.
“Republicans have undoubtedly strengthened their structural advantage and could now theoretically net as many as 13 seats from redistricting. But the national political environment remains grim for the GOP, and several of the seats Republicans redrew in their favor remain very competitive in 2026,” she said.
“A more realistic net gain for Republicans from redistricting alone is five to seven seats, which is unlikely to be enough to stop significant Democratic gains in November,” Dann added. “Democrats remain the favorites in November, just no longer overwhelmingly so.”
The Virginia ruling hits Democrats especially hard, because outside of California, it was the party’s best chance at netting a significant number of seats in the redistricting battles, and the party sunk tens of millions of dollars into getting the maps approved by voters. The ruling comes as a handful of Southern states like Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama and South Carolina are moving to quickly redraw lines in light of last week’s Supreme Court ruling, new lines that could eliminate a Democratic-held district in each state.
Some of the redistricting gains are only in pencil at this point, as House races don’t always mimic the past elections used to measure them when political mapmakers are doing the drawing.
But the total picture on redistricting — after a series of previous setbacks in places like California and Indiana prompted GOP recriminations about mid-decade redistricting — have Republicans more optimistic.
“While they may have an advantage on the environment, we have an advantage on the terrain. The terrain doesn’t change, the environment does,” one national Republican strategist involved in House races told NBC News.
Another national Republican House strategist echoed that sentiment, while also pointing to the GOP fundraising edge across party groups and super PACs as another important advantage.
Rep. Richard Hudson, who leads the House GOP campaign committee, said in a statement that the Virginia court ruling “is yet another sign Republicans have the momentum heading into November. We’re on offense, and we’re going to win.”
While some Democrats are willing to admit that they’re likely to end up on the wrong side of the redistricting battle, they still believe they’re on track to win the broader war.
Rep. Suzan DelBene, chair of House Democrats’ campaign arm, said in a Friday statement that they “remain poised to retake the House majority in November” despite the Virginia court ruling.
Compared to the party’s national loss in 2024, Democrats have enjoyed a string of flips and overperformances in 2025 and 2026 elections, from special elections for congressional and state legislative districts to statewide races in New Jersey and Virginia. Earlier this week, Michigan Democrats won a state Senate special election by about 19 points in a district then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried by 1 point in 2024.
A national Democratic strategist involved in House races told NBC News, “We’d much rather be us than them, but this has never been a given for us at all. It is a setback … but this does not change our overall outlook in how we are thinking about and our confidence in winning back the House.”
Trump’s approval rating has been dipping into the 30s in some recent surveys, with clear signs the public is frustrated with his handling of the all-important issue of the economy. A recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll found that 61% of Americans disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy, with similar shares saying the economy isn’t working well for them and that Trump is to blame for rising gas prices.
And there’s evidence that sentiment is spilling over into how Americans view Republicans too. Multiple polls over the last few months, including from NBC News and Fox News, have shown the GOP’s edge on the economy evaporating, as more voters say they plan to support Democrats than Republicans in the fall campaigns.
One of the Republican strategists told NBC News that they believed there was still time for Trump and the party to shift public sentiment on the economy.
“A lot of stuff has been upended by the conflict in Iran. I think everyone is on the same page that we would all like that to end for a variety of reasons,” they said. “We’re seeing the signs of an economy that is trying to come back to life — something like a conflict with Iran is what’s holding it back. We get that done, I think we’re in a good spot.”
But voters were frustrated with the economy before the Iran war began, too.
And the Democratic strategist argued that the “frustration” voters feel with rising prices isn’t easy to paper over. Repeated headlines about projects like the White House ballroom, the person argued, give Democrats a clear contrast to argue that Republicans are showing Americans “they don’t give a s— about them.”
“You’re paying $4.60 for gas and Trump and House Republicans want to use your tax dollars not to help lower prices but to pay for a gold-laden ballroom for him to drink Champagne in?” the Democrat said.
“You can’t dream up a better contrast if you tried.”
