Steyer and Hilton lead in new California governor primary poll
April 14, 2026, 10:47 a.m. PT
- A new poll shows Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton as the top two candidates in California’s gubernatorial primary.
- Former frontrunner Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race amid sexual assault allegations, which he denies.
- President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Steve Hilton has significantly impacted the Republican field, torpedoing Chad Bianco’s campaign.
- The cost of living is the most important issue for California voters, according to the poll.
Two top candidates have emerged for California’s June primary, a major shift in the state’s crowded governor’s race.
A SurveyUSA poll released Tuesday, April 14, shows Democratic candidate Tom Steyer leading with 21% of likely voters and Republican candidate Steve Hilton three percentage points behind at 18%, a stark contrast from a poll released just one week earlier that showed Republicans Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco leading with an equal percentage of voters.
Congressman Eric Swalwell, who dropped from the race over the weekend amid sexual assault allegations, held 9% of likely voters. The poll was 80% complete on Sunday when Swalwell broke the news.
Bianco and Democratic candidate Katie Porter each share 8% of likely voters, while the remaining Democratic gubernatorial candidates — Antonio Villaraigosa, Xavier Becerra, Betty Yee, Matt Mahan, and Tony Thurmond — trail, each capturing 5% or less of voters.
Compared to the poll released a week ago, fewer voters remain uncertain about the candidates, with just 18 percent of likely voters undecided.
The poll, with a sample size of 1,200, including 788 likely voters, was conducted between Wednesday, April 8, and Sunday, April 10.
Poll comes amid political shakeups
The poll comes amid multiple political shakeups in the span of a matter of days.
President Donald Trump on Sunday, April 5, endorsed Hilton in the California governor’s race, a move that some political experts believed may eliminate the possibility of a Republican facing off against another Republican in the November election.
“Trump’s endorsement of Steve Hilton likely frees up tens of millions of dollars for Democratic groups who would have otherwise had to spend heavily to elevate one of the two leading GOP gubernatorial candidates to avoid a Democratic lockout,” political data expert Rob Pyers wrote in a post on X.
With California’s top-two primary system — in which all candidates are listed on the same ballot, and top-two vote-getters move on to the general election — party leaders previously worried Democrats may be “locked out” of the general election.
Days after Trump’s endorsement, the San Francisco Chronicle published allegations of sexual assault from a former staffer against Swalwell, the leading Democratic candidate. CNN followed with sexual assault allegations from the same staffer and three other women who alleged other forms of sexual misconduct.
The allegations drew a wide spectrum of political figures to call on Swalwell to drop from the governor’s race.
Swalwell denied the allegations in a Friday video on social media, saying the claims were politically motivated. By Sunday evening, however, Swalwell announced plans to drop out of the race but continued to refute the allegations.
“To my family, staff, friends, and supporters, I am deeply sorry for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past,” Swalwell wrote in a post on X. “I will fight the serious, false allegations that have been made — but that’s my fight, not a campaign’s.”
The following day, Swalwell announced his plans to resign from Congress.
“Donald Trump’s endorsement has all but guaranteed that Steve Hilton will be one of the two candidates in the runoff,” Dan Schnur, a professor at UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, told The Sacramento Bee. “Eric Swalwell’s departure has completely eliminated reasonable guesswork on who the other candidate might be.”
Who’s running for California governor?
The top gubernatorial candidates include two Republicans and two Democrats:
Other notable Democratic candidates include: Xavier Becerra, Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa, Tony Thurmond, and Betty Yee. An additional 51 candidates are also running for governor. A list of candidates and their titles can be found here.
What else did poll find?
Sixty percent of likely voters say there are too many candidates vying for the governor’s seat, the poll shows.
Overwhelmingly, voters say the cost of living is the biggest issue facing the Golden State, with 42% saying it is the top issue. Ten percent of likely voters identified homelessness as the top issue, followed by 9% identifying housing as the main issue.
California voters said they prefer a governor who will do the following:
- Fight climate change: 63% versus 28% who say the next governor should loosen climate regulations on businesses
- Prioritize building more housing: 62% of versus 24% who say the next governor should prioritize the prevention of too much development
- Stand up to President Donald Trump: 58% versus 34% who say the next governor should work with the President.
- Protects immigrants: 57% versus 26% who say the next governor should work to deport immigrants
- Works with the tech industry: 55% versus 33% who say the next governor should stand up to the tech industry
- Works with the legislature: 54% versus 35% who say the governor should stand up to the legislature
- Cuts government services to prevent higher taxes: 47% versus 36% who say they should raise taxes on some in order to fund services
When is the governor’s race?
Voters will choose the Golden State’s next governor during California’s general election on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Key dates for June primary
Some key dates for the June primary include:
- May 4: County elections officials will begin mailing each registered voter a vote‐by‐mail ballot. Early voting sites also open.
- May 5: Ballot drop‐off locations open.
- May 18: Last day to register for the June primary
- May 23: Voting centers open for Voter’s Choice Act counties for early in-person voting
- June 2: Primary election day: Polls from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
How do Californians register to vote?
The last day to register to vote for the June primary is May 18.
Californians can register online or by mail.
“You can also pick up an application at your county elections office, any Department of Motor Vehicles office, and many post offices, public libraries, and government offices,” according to the state’s website. “To have a paper application mailed to you, call your county elections office or the Secretary of State’s toll-free voter hotline at (800) 345-VOTE.”
Those who are registered to vote will receive a vote-by-mail ballot for the June primary election, which can be returned via mail, drop box, or in person at a dedicated voting center.
County elections offices will begin mailing ballots on May 4, and ballot drop-off locations will open the following day.
You can track the status of your ballot using the state’s WheresMyBallot tracking tool.