NFL free agency is essentially complete after two weeks. The two-day negotiating period, prior to the league’s calendar beginning anew, saw nearly every team agree to terms with at least one external free agent.
The activity around the NFL is now at a lull nine days after the litany of moves made after the start of the new league year on March 11. Front offices will now turn their attention toward the 2026 NFL Draft and the pro days and 30 visits for the incoming class of collegiate prospects.
Finding out who truly won and lost from the first couple weeks of free agency 2026 will truly be determined a year or years down the road, in some cases. However, we live in the present, so here’s the gift of winners and losers from this offseason’s free agency cycle as things sit today.
Winner: Matthew Stafford and the Rams
The Los Angeles Rams finished a play or two short of beating the eventual Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Championship. Cornerback was the position that held them back, and the Rams went all in to fix the issue. Trading for a former All-Pro in Chiefs‘ Trent McDuffie and then signing his buddy Jaylen Watson was great business. Those two, plus Quentin Lake, comprise a strong trio. Kam Curl’s return ensures stability on the back end behind them. Los Angeles has everything it needs to win the Super Bowl next season, which will be played at SoFi Stadium — their home turf and the site of their last Super Bowl win that concluded the 2021 season.
DraftKings Sportsbook now lists the Rams as the 2026 Super Bowl favorite with +850 odds, and 38-year-old quarterback Matthew Stafford is now positioned to potentially win a second ring in his home stadium and then ride off into the sunset a year after winning league MVP honors in 2025.
Winner: QB Fernando Mendoza, HC Klint Kubiak and the Raiders
Entering the offseason with the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and a first-time head coach in Klint Kubiak, the Raiders entered free agency with an NFL-most $95.556 million in effective cap space, per Over The Cap. They put that financial flexibility to good use, spending $289.472 million in total contract value, the second-most in the NFL behind only the Tennessee Titans‘ $316 million.
Two of their biggest moves were done with an eye toward elevating the 2025 NFL season’s worst scoring offense as the Raiders averaged just 14.2 points per game in a 3-14 campaign. Las Vegas made Tyler Linderbaum the highest-paid interior offensive lineman of all time with a $27 million average annual salary just shy of his 26th birthday. Pro Football Focus graded Linderbaum fourth overall among centers with an 80.2 offensive grade in 2025, and ESPN charted him with a 97% pass block win rate last season. Both figures ranked fourth among centers.
That will help former Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the 2025 Heisman Trophy winner and soon-to-be first overall pick of the draft, hit the ground running.
Former Vikings wide receiver Jalen Nailor should slot in nicely alongside youngsters Tre Tucker and Jack Bech in the Raiders’ wide receiver room. All three are under 28 and can grow alongside Mendoza, All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Las Vegas also bolstered its defense with the signings of edge rusher Kwity Paye (three years, $48 million), linebackers Quay Walker (three years, $41 million) and Nakobe Dean (three years, $36 million) and the re-signing of cornerback Eric Stokes (three years, $30 million). Walker, Dean and Stokes were all starters on Georgia’s dominant defenses this decade, so it’s clear general manager John Spytek hopes their collective athleticism and chemistry can help the Raiders play a similarly domineering brand of football in Las Vegas.
Then, the Raiders had five-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby returned to them after Baltimore’s medical staff didn’t like what they saw in his physical after he had surgery for a meniscus injury in January. Crosby returning to Las Vegas may be a blessing in disguise should he return to health down the road. His 69.5 career sacks are the sixth-most in the NFL since entering the league in 2019, and he could look even better with a much stronger linebacking core playing behind him.
Loser: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars won their last eight games of the regular season before a three-point home loss in the opening round of the playoffs against the Buffalo Bills cut their 2025 season short. They’re now without a star linebacker in Devin Lloyd and a bell cow running back in Travis Etienne who had at least 1,350 yards from scrimmage in three of the last four years.
The Jaguars will be relying on Travis Hunter to essentially be a full-time corner in 2026, but at least they acquired a rotational running back in Chris Rodriguez Jr. fresh off a career year. The running back and linebacker positions still need plenty of help. Jacksonville’s losses in relation to its additions leave the team as the biggest loser of the offseason.
Winners: Ravens and Trey Hendrickson
The trade for five-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby seemed to provide the Ravens the star power they needed in the pass-rush department. Then, the trade shockingly fell through due to medical issues after Baltimore didn’t like what it saw in Crosby’s physical. Baltimore deftly changed course by signing 2024 NFL sacks leader Trey Hendrickson to a four-year, $112 million contract with $60 million guaranteed. Prior to an injury-plagued 2025, Hendrickson produced 17.5 sacks in both 2023 and 2024. They also got both their 2026 and 2027 first-round picks returned, which will be crucial in helping Baltimore build a long-term, sustainable roster around two-time NFL MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson. Hendrickson also has the personal win of remaining in the AFC North, so he will now get to take out his frustration on the Cincinnati Bengals twice a year after bitter contract negotiations with them failed to yield a long-term contract.
Signing safety Jaylinn Hawkins was another key victory. He did a little bit of everything for the defending AFC champion New England Patriots with four interceptions, six passes defended, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and one-and-a-half sacks in 15 games played, all starts. Pro Football Focus graded Hawkins as its No. 5 overall safety with an 83.3 defensive grade, and he’ll pair nicely with All-Pro Kyle Hamilton and former first-round pick Malaki Starks in new head coach Jesse Minter’s scheme.
Loser: Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy
Minnesota traded up to select Michigan national championship-winning quarterback J.J. McCarthy 10th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, and they let Sam Darnold walk in free agency to the Seattle Seahawks last offseason after a Pro Bowl campaign that yielded 14 wins. McCarthy will now be unfavorably compared to Darnold for the rest of his career. The former No. 10 overall pick finished last in the NFL in completion rate (57.6%), touchdown-to-interception ratio (11-12) and passer rating (72.6), while Darnold won Super Bowl LX as the Seahawks’ starting quarterback.
Now, Minnesota appears to be ready to move off of McCarthy as its long-term quarterback answer. The Vikings signed 2019 No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray to a one-year deal, and he appears primed to beat out McCarthy to start in 2026. Murray is a two-time Pro Bowler who is one of four players in NFL history to average 200-plus passing yards per game and 30-plus rushing yards per game for his career. The other three are 2024 NFL MVP Josh Allen, 2015 NFL MVP Cam Newton and 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels. There’s a good chance Murray will look more like the two-time Pro Bowl version of himself from the early 2020s while throwing to 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year wide receiver Justin Jefferson in 2024 Coach of the Year Kevin O’Connell’s offense than the shell of himself he was the last few years with the Arizona Cardinals.
Prisco’s NFL Power Rankings, free agency edition: NFC West dominance; Dolphins starting over from ground floor
Pete Prisco
Winner: Panthers GM Dan Morgan
The Panthers signed arguably the top player available in free agency at the following positions: edge rusher (Jaelan Phillips for four years, $120 million with $80 million guaranteed), inside linebacker (Devin Lloyd for three years, $42 million with $25 million guaranteed) and offensive tackle (Rasheed Walker for one year, $4 million). Phillips and Lloyd will uplift an underwhelming front seven while Walker will be an above-league-average fill-in for the injured Ikem Ekwonu in 2026 after Ekwonu suffered a ruptured patellar tendon.
Carolina now has Pro Bowl-caliber players at all levels of its defense with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Derrick Brown and Phillips along the defensive line, a Pro Bowler in Lloyd in the middle and two-time Pro Bowl cornerback Jaycee Horn in the secondary. These acquisitions could also accelerate the development of 2025 second-round pick edge rusher Nic Scourton and 2024 third-round pick linebacker Trevin Wallace.
The defending NFC South champs are having the best offseason in terms of how much their roster has been upgraded, and if Bryce Young’s development continues to trend upward, they could be a tough out in the playoffs once again.
Winner and loser: New Dolphins QB Malik Willis
Quarterback Malik Willis parlayed playing 11 games, including three starts, for the Green Bay Packers while learning from head coach Matt LaFleur and starting quarterback Jordan Love into a three-year, $67.5 million contract with $45 million guaranteed with the Miami Dolphins. He’ll also feel quite comfortable with the franchise’s brain trust after following former Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, now the Dolphins’ head coach, and former Pacers vice president of player personnel Jon-Eric Sullivan, now the Dolphins’ general manager, down to Miami.
However, the receiving corps he is now surrounded by looks a little barren after the Dolphins traded No. 1 option Jaylen Waddle and a fourth-round pick to the Denver Broncos on Tuesday for a 2026 first-round pick in addition to 2026 third-and fourth-round picks. If the season started today, the team’s three starting wide receivers would be Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell and Malik Washington.
It’s worth wondering if Willis wishes he had considered a team like the Arizona Cardinals, a team whose new head coach Mike LaFleur, the young brother of Matt, runs a similar system to the Packers and has much better receiving options (All-Pro tight end Trey McBride, former top five pick Marvin Harrison Jr. and the emerging Michael Wilson). Miami will likely add a receiver in the 2026 NFL Draft with either its own pick (11th overall) or the 30th overall pick received from Denver.
Loser: Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles and QB Baker Mayfield
Wide receiver Mike Evans is perhaps the best Tampa Bay Buccaneer ever. The team drafted him seventh overall, and Evans lived up to his draft status and more. He’s the Buccaneers‘ all-time leader in catches (866), receiving yards (13,052), receiving touchdowns (108) and total points scored (662). For him to leave the franchise after 12 seasons means he gave up on being able to play relevant football in Tampa Bay. The last straw was definitely the Buccaneers’ 29-28 home loss against the Atlanta Falcons in which Tampa Bay’s defense allowed Atlanta to turn a third-and-28 into a fourth-and-14 into an eventual first down. That allowed the Falcons to burn the rest of the time off and kick the game-winning, 43-yard field goal with no time remaining.
Evans decided he was better off signing a three-year, $42.5 million contract with $14.3 million guaranteed with the San Francisco 49ers despite the move from Florida, which doesn’t have any state income tax, to California, which most definitely does have a state income tax. There isn’t any guaranteed money on the contract after Year 1, so it’s essentially a one-year deal in which the 49ers have two team options. That says an awful lot about the Buccaneers’ current prospects that Evans chose the arrangement with San Francisco over the comfort of his only NFL home where he has already won a Super Bowl.
Loser: Cleveland Browns
The Browns lost three-time Pro Bowl guard Wyatt Teller, seven-time Pro Bowl guard Joe Bitonio and center Ethan Pocic in free agency, and then they had to overspend to replace them. They traded a 2026 fifth-round pick to the Houston Texans for offensive tackle Tytus Howard and then immediately re-signed him to a two-year, $45 million extension with $35.5 million guaranteed. That’s a little rich. Cleveland replaced Pocic with Elgton Jenkins, but he’s 30 and fresh off the Green Bay Packers cutting him loose with a failed physical designation. Jenkins signed for two years and $24 million with $15 million guaranteed with seemingly only the down slope of his career ahead of him. Zion Johnson comes over from the Chargers after being part of a Los Angeles offensive line that saw quarterback Justin Herbert be the NFL’s most pressured (263 pressures) and most hit (129 times hit) quarterback in 2025.
Other than that, it’s been an uneventful offseason for Cleveland. On the bright side of things for the Browns, 2026 is the final year of quarterback Deshaun Watson’s contract. However, the cap hits pushed into the future from restructures of his contract will haunt the Browns through the 2028 season.
